What I was referring to is this: "I tell you my card is 7 of spades but I have a history of lying. Most likely, the card isn't the 7 of spades. But that doesn'

What I was referring to is this: "I tell you my card is 7 of spades but I have a history of lying. Most likely, the card isn't the 7 of spades. But that doesn't mean it's likely that the card is the 9 of diamonds." I suggested that such reasoning could, in a nutshell, be summarized as "ad hominem".