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Current CFR is closer to 3% globally not 0.3% (I don't know how people get this number consistently wrong -- it's on the first page of any CoVID tracking websit

by cyphar 6y ago

Current CFR is closer to 3% globally not 0.3% (I don't know how people get this number consistently wrong -- it's on the first page of any CoVID tracking website). A reminder that 3% of the world population is more than 150 million people (and the CFR goes up if hospitals are overrun -- which we saw several times last year). Most people have some kind of underlying health condition (more than two-thirds of the western world are overweight or obese -- that's already one co-morbidity), so it's not surprising that most people who die from CoVID have other health conditions. And this is ignoring the more obvious problem that even otherwise perfectly healthy people can infect family and friends.

bryanwb 6y ago
CFR is positive tests divided by fatalities. Given that this is a highly transmissible respiratory disease it most likely that the actual fatality rate is 1/10 or 1/100 of 3%. The WHO has said as much. You are welcome to be a member of Team Apocalypse. I won't deny you entry Per the WHO, Infection fatality rate is ~ 0.27% but you want the apocalypse. I am sad you are hoping for the worst. What is it that you actually wish for? The failure of our society? Are you rooting against us? https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
- cyphar 6y ago
  Case fatality (which is at 3%) is not the same as infection fatality. You cannot directly measure infection fatality until the pandemic is over (the best you have are estimates until then), so going with the case fatality rate (which has stayed around 3% for most of the pandemic) seems like a reasonable choice.
  - tremon 6y ago
    How will you measure infection fatality after the pandemic is over? You will still need to know the number of infected (including the asymptomatic) before you can arrive at a meaningful number. Or do you mean that infection fatality can be calculated once you assume that 100% of the population has been exposed to the virus? IFR would still be based on assumptions, I think.

by cyphar 6y ago

bryanwb 6y ago

CFR is positive tests divided by fatalities. Given that this is a highly transmissible respiratory disease it most likely that the actual fatality rate is 1/10 or 1/100 of 3%. The WHO has said as much. You are welcome to be a member of Team Apocalypse. I won't deny you entry Per the WHO, Infection fatality rate is ~ 0.27% but you want the apocalypse. I am sad you are hoping for the worst. What is it that you actually wish for? The failure of our society? Are you rooting against us? https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

cyphar 6y ago
Case fatality (which is at 3%) is not the same as infection fatality. You cannot directly measure infection fatality until the pandemic is over (the best you have are estimates until then), so going with the case fatality rate (which has stayed around 3% for most of the pandemic) seems like a reasonable choice.
- tremon 6y ago
  How will you measure infection fatality after the pandemic is over? You will still need to know the number of infected (including the asymptomatic) before you can arrive at a meaningful number. Or do you mean that infection fatality can be calculated once you assume that 100% of the population has been exposed to the virus? IFR would still be based on assumptions, I think.