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Like I said, I agree that it's extremely hard to judge if someone has genuine ability before they exhibit the track record. I'm simply saying that once the trac
by fractionalhare 6y ago
Like I said, I agree that it's extremely hard to judge if someone has genuine ability before they exhibit the track record. I'm simply saying that once the track record is established, attributing it to chance alone doesn't really make sense mathematically speaking.
- lazide 6y agoThanks for doing the math! It would be fun to really really look into this. Run some controlled experiments (alas no multi universe engine to do that correctly), deep dive into what each fund actually does to find positive or negative correlations, etc. It would be interesting for instance to do back testing on many of these things - if someone is declared a ‘winner’, vs not declared a winner (but doing the same things), is the likelyhood the winning streak holds up greater or lesser? Does a large amount under investment change odds of success? (Big pockets make it easier to win?) Does a change in amount under investment change odds of success? (People flock to perceived winners, both investors and opportunities, increasing their odds of success)
- derivagral 6y agoYou can find letters to investors from a lot of hedge funds with a bit of searching (e.g. [0]). My favorite was Baupost [1], but they can be a bit litigous with taking their content down from sites. Perhaps not the raw data you're looking for, but its a different perspective than the news outlets have. [0] https://www.vintagevalueinvesting.com/the-complete-list-of-q4-2020-hedge-fund-letters-to-investors/ https://www.vintagevalueinvesting.com/the-complete-list-of-q... [1] https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/i40wi3/seth_klarmans_baupost_letter_to_investors_july_23/ https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/i40wi3/seth_klar... (wayback link in the comments)