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The US response to WW2 took years. We’re still in the months range. You can’t parallel use the early sequential phases; you can’t fabricate this equipment — nor

The US response to WW2 took years. We’re still in the months range. You can’t parallel use the early sequential phases; you can’t fabricate this equipment — nor the expertise to manufacture it from nothing in just a few months.

Robotbeat 6y ago
Yes, actually, you can. (A well-endowed manufacturer can produce this equipment.) But it takes coordination, leadership, unlimited funding, and federal authority to step across red tape and corporate veils and IP to get things done. I was involved with some of this stuff. I know first hand how uncoordinated and un-led much of it was. We needed technocrats on private jets flying around the country tooling up production and solving every supply chain bottleneck like they were Elon trying to squeeze out luxury car production at the end of a quarter. And vaccine production ABSOLUTELY could've been parallelized with approval. In fact, it was. They were stockpiling doses before approval. But the effort was at least an order of magnitude smaller than it ought to have been. We constantly make excuses for this lack of effort. We shouldn't. We know what is possible. We can read history books.
- visarga 6y ago
  I'm wondering how we'd fared if Elon was in charge.
  - Robotbeat 6y ago
    That's a tough one. Could go either way (he's unstable... but resourceful). Tesla has been helping CureVac, though, which is one of the other mRNA vaccine providers (and could perhaps help scale out Moderna and Pfizer's vaccine, if they were given access to all their IP?).
    - JamesBarney 6y ago
      I don't think we could have done worse.
      - Robotbeat 6y ago
        Europe is somehow vaccinating fewer people as a percent of the population than the US.
        Slartie 6y ago
        This is true, and it will stay that way for a while. The US (at federal level) failed at nearly everything regarding containment of the virus, but got one single thing right in this pandemic: ordering vaccines. Ordering enough from the most promising manufacturers, at high-enough prices, and early. The EU failed at all of these three things in the most historic way possible.
CaptArmchair 6y ago
> The US response to WW2 took years. That's incorrect. 4 months before the Pearl Harbour, FDR instated the Supply Priorities and Allocation Board by executive order. The purpose of the Supply Priorities and Allocation Board was to coordinate the distribution of materials and commodities related to national defense and to assist the Office of Production Management (OPM) in carrying out their overlapping duties. On january 1942, merely 4 weeks after Pearl Harbour, FDR dissolved the SPAB and instated the War Production Board by executive order. The WPB directed conversion of industries from peacetime work to war needs, allocated scarce materials, established priorities in the distribution of materials and services, and prohibited nonessential production. It rationed such commodities as gasoline, heating oil, metals, rubber, paper and plastics. Moreover, the U.S. economy was already radically shifting before 1941. Between 1939 and 1941, unemployment feel from 17.2% to 9.9% and by 1942 it feel to 4.2%. There's also an implicit assumption in your statement: the U.S. not actively joining the War until june 1944. That's incorrect as well. The U.S. already actively engaged in the North African Campaign on 11 May 1942. Barely 6 months after Pearl Harbour. Pearl Harbour kicked off the Pacific Theatre right off the bat. In June of 1942 - 7 months after Pearl - the Japanese Navy was soundly defeated in the Battle of Midway by Admiral Nimitz. August 1942 - 8 months after Pearl - the U.S. took the offensive at Guadalcanal. Admiral Yamamoto, who led the Pearl attack, never believed Japan would be able to win from the United States in the first place. He believed it was a massive strategical mistake. He has conveyed his feelings: > "I can run wild for six months ... after that, I have no expectation of success". Which is exactly what happened. So, no, the involvement of the United States in World War II is anything but an example of a nation state being forced to wait until it has ramped it's economic output before it can act. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Production_Board https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Production_Board https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_home_front_during_World_War_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_home_front_durin... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_African_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_African_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Midway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Midway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalcanal_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalcanal_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto%27s_sleeping_giant_quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto%27s_sleeping_...

Robotbeat 6y ago

Yes, actually, you can. (A well-endowed manufacturer can produce this equipment.) But it takes coordination, leadership, unlimited funding, and federal authority to step across red tape and corporate veils and IP to get things done. I was involved with some of this stuff. I know first hand how uncoordinated and un-led much of it was. We needed technocrats on private jets flying around the country tooling up production and solving every supply chain bottleneck like they were Elon trying to squeeze out luxury car production at the end of a quarter. And vaccine production ABSOLUTELY could've been parallelized with approval. In fact, it was. They were stockpiling doses before approval. But the effort was at least an order of magnitude smaller than it ought to have been. We constantly make excuses for this lack of effort. We shouldn't. We know what is possible. We can read history books.

visarga 6y ago
I'm wondering how we'd fared if Elon was in charge.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  That's a tough one. Could go either way (he's unstable... but resourceful). Tesla has been helping CureVac, though, which is one of the other mRNA vaccine providers (and could perhaps help scale out Moderna and Pfizer's vaccine, if they were given access to all their IP?).
  - JamesBarney 6y ago
    I don't think we could have done worse.
    - Robotbeat 6y ago
      Europe is somehow vaccinating fewer people as a percent of the population than the US.
      - Slartie 6y ago
        This is true, and it will stay that way for a while. The US (at federal level) failed at nearly everything regarding containment of the virus, but got one single thing right in this pandemic: ordering vaccines. Ordering enough from the most promising manufacturers, at high-enough prices, and early. The EU failed at all of these three things in the most historic way possible.

CaptArmchair 6y ago

> The US response to WW2 took years. That's incorrect. 4 months before the Pearl Harbour, FDR instated the Supply Priorities and Allocation Board by executive order. The purpose of the Supply Priorities and Allocation Board was to coordinate the distribution of materials and commodities related to national defense and to assist the Office of Production Management (OPM) in carrying out their overlapping duties. On january 1942, merely 4 weeks after Pearl Harbour, FDR dissolved the SPAB and instated the War Production Board by executive order. The WPB directed conversion of industries from peacetime work to war needs, allocated scarce materials, established priorities in the distribution of materials and services, and prohibited nonessential production. It rationed such commodities as gasoline, heating oil, metals, rubber, paper and plastics. Moreover, the U.S. economy was already radically shifting before 1941. Between 1939 and 1941, unemployment feel from 17.2% to 9.9% and by 1942 it feel to 4.2%. There's also an implicit assumption in your statement: the U.S. not actively joining the War until june 1944. That's incorrect as well. The U.S. already actively engaged in the North African Campaign on 11 May 1942. Barely 6 months after Pearl Harbour. Pearl Harbour kicked off the Pacific Theatre right off the bat. In June of 1942 - 7 months after Pearl - the Japanese Navy was soundly defeated in the Battle of Midway by Admiral Nimitz. August 1942 - 8 months after Pearl - the U.S. took the offensive at Guadalcanal. Admiral Yamamoto, who led the Pearl attack, never believed Japan would be able to win from the United States in the first place. He believed it was a massive strategical mistake. He has conveyed his feelings: > "I can run wild for six months ... after that, I have no expectation of success". Which is exactly what happened. So, no, the involvement of the United States in World War II is anything but an example of a nation state being forced to wait until it has ramped it's economic output before it can act. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Production_Board https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Production_Board https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_home_front_during_World_War_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_home_front_durin... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_African_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_African_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Midway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Midway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalcanal_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalcanal_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto%27s_sleeping_giant_quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto%27s_sleeping_...