> An options trade means you have to be right about 3 things: the direction, the timing, and the amount. You just have to be more correct about one thing than

> An options trade means you have to be right about 3 things: the direction, the timing, and the amount. You just have to be more correct about one thing than you are wrong about all the others. For example, if you buy 10yr calls and term structure blows out as the market sells off, you make way more on vega than you lose on delta. It's a neat trick when you get the timing, direction, and magnitude correct, but it's not necessary to pull off the hat trick in order to make money.