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> That implies that the time for the "new users" to become half of the user base is around 30 years That doesn’t add up at all... you’re implying that users ar
by monkpit 6y ago
> That implies that the time for the "new users" to become half of the user base is around 30 years
That doesn’t add up at all... you’re implying that users are gained and lost at exactly the same rate, consistently, over a span of at least 30 years.
It doesn’t invalidate your other point about competition, but it’s a flawed argument to base any reasoning upon.
- AnthonyMouse 6y agoBut the real situation is even stronger to my point, because most software in use today won't be in 30 years. So the real graph for established products is that you continue to get new users for five or ten years as young people learn and old people die, but never enough to even hit the halfway mark. Then your company folds or gets out-competed by something else, your user base falls off a cliff and the software becomes irrelevant. The point at which "new users" are the majority of the user base never even happens.