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In 2017, my hometown Atlanta Falcons (an American football team) blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. It was the most stunning high-profile choke in the history

In 2017, my hometown Atlanta Falcons (an American football team) blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. It was the most stunning high-profile choke in the history of the National Football League. In the past few years since, the team has continued to develop a reputation for choking. We have lost a number of high-profile games, where the predictive models suggested a 99% probability of winning near the end. Yet we still found a way to lose at the last second. During this time, I have observed that fanbase has become absolutely toxic. To the point where I don't even enjoy talking with other Falcons fans anymore, and find that many Falcons fans tend to feel the same way. Our fandom is an isolating, silent shame wrapped in a blanket of bitter denial and deflection. The fanbases of other NFL teams, such as the Cleveland Browns or Buffalo Bills, are known for being charming and loveable for their loyalty in the face of decades of futility. But this has not been the outcome for our fanbase, in the face of sudden and abrupt disaster. This is just one counter-anecdote. But I wonder if there are "kinds" or "degrees" of losing, whose nuance matters? Or kinds and degrees of fan culture, prior to the bonding loss? Or maybe the whole thing is just nonsense. I know there are studies linked here, but cultural anthropology is borderline-pseudoscience.

Jtsummers 6y ago
I don't know where it originated, but my family uses the phrase "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" for things like that Super Bowl game. After that game, I noticed the Falcons fans in my town actually seemed more into the team (central GA at the time). Some people put away their apparel, but the ones who kept it up were more invested than ever.
- renewiltord 6y ago
  Haha, any English or Indian cricket fan surely knows that phrase quite well. I remember it growing up in the 90s and it surely precedes that.
  - akchin 6y ago
    As a 90s Indian cricket fan, this was exactly my thought :-)
- ska 6y ago
  > I don't know where it originated Apparently it goes back to at least the 1800s in sporting use. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/06/07/jaws-of-victory/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/06/07/jaws-of-victory/
  - Jtsummers 6y ago
    Nice find, thanks. I knew it wasn't original to us, but I've rarely heard it outside of my home (though I also don't watch sports news/discussions so it's probably pretty common there).
QuesnayJr 6y ago
I'm a long-time Eagles fan. The Eagles didn't have any failures as high profile as Super Bowl 51, but they did seriously contend for a long time without ever winning. At the time, it seemed like it was okay, because it meant at least most seasons meant something, but by the time Super Bowl 52 rolled around it almost felt like a mental illness that was magically cured by them winning. I think the experience of being a fan of true sad-sack franchises doesn't have the same effect. (Probably Bills fans were like that after their fourth Super Bowl loss.) A successful season for the Browns or the Lions is 8-8, so they never reach the point where they think "This is our year." You got to think this was your year to the latest possible moment.
Arrath 6y ago
A similarly painful Super Bowl loss (Seahawks 2015) lead to me bonding with a large number of sports fans, within and without the Seahawks fan base. I was in New Orleans for a professional conference and watched the game in the hotel bar. After that heart rending loss, I just wandered around Bourbon Street (still wearing my jersey) until the wee hours of the morning. I was greeted, chatted up, hugged, by fans of any number of teams, not even my own. The "Fuck Tom Brady" factor may have played into this, which ties into the 'kinds' or 'degrees' of loss that you're leading in to. And yes, I certainly think there are degrees of losing.
andy800 6y ago
>> We have lost a number of high-profile games, where the predictive models suggested a 99% probability of winning near the end. If it's any consolation, I don't believe the Falcons were ever truly at 99%+ win probability, in the Super Bowl or in those blown leads this regular season. Most WP models, in my opinion, highly over/understate the true WP as they approach the extremes. Obviously ATL had a very high P(winning), but perhaps it was 96-97% rather than 99+. Seems like a minor difference, but from the NE side, if the Patriots truly had a 3.5% chance instead of a reported 0.5%, that's a 7x improvement. I've done some analysis on these models and written about it here: https://cfnine.com/blog/nfl-win-probability-part-1 https://cfnine.com/blog/nfl-win-probability-part-1
- creaghpatr 6y ago
  That is, in fact, NOT ANY CONSOLATION, but this is HN so I have no doubt you are being sincere and I appreciate that. t. Atlanta sports fan

Jtsummers 6y ago

I don't know where it originated, but my family uses the phrase "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" for things like that Super Bowl game. After that game, I noticed the Falcons fans in my town actually seemed more into the team (central GA at the time). Some people put away their apparel, but the ones who kept it up were more invested than ever.

renewiltord 6y ago
Haha, any English or Indian cricket fan surely knows that phrase quite well. I remember it growing up in the 90s and it surely precedes that.
- akchin 6y ago
  As a 90s Indian cricket fan, this was exactly my thought :-)
ska 6y ago
> I don't know where it originated Apparently it goes back to at least the 1800s in sporting use. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/06/07/jaws-of-victory/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/06/07/jaws-of-victory/
- Jtsummers 6y ago
  Nice find, thanks. I knew it wasn't original to us, but I've rarely heard it outside of my home (though I also don't watch sports news/discussions so it's probably pretty common there).

QuesnayJr 6y ago

I'm a long-time Eagles fan. The Eagles didn't have any failures as high profile as Super Bowl 51, but they did seriously contend for a long time without ever winning. At the time, it seemed like it was okay, because it meant at least most seasons meant something, but by the time Super Bowl 52 rolled around it almost felt like a mental illness that was magically cured by them winning. I think the experience of being a fan of true sad-sack franchises doesn't have the same effect. (Probably Bills fans were like that after their fourth Super Bowl loss.) A successful season for the Browns or the Lions is 8-8, so they never reach the point where they think "This is our year." You got to think this was your year to the latest possible moment.

Arrath 6y ago

A similarly painful Super Bowl loss (Seahawks 2015) lead to me bonding with a large number of sports fans, within and without the Seahawks fan base. I was in New Orleans for a professional conference and watched the game in the hotel bar. After that heart rending loss, I just wandered around Bourbon Street (still wearing my jersey) until the wee hours of the morning. I was greeted, chatted up, hugged, by fans of any number of teams, not even my own. The "Fuck Tom Brady" factor may have played into this, which ties into the 'kinds' or 'degrees' of loss that you're leading in to. And yes, I certainly think there are degrees of losing.

andy800 6y ago

>> We have lost a number of high-profile games, where the predictive models suggested a 99% probability of winning near the end. If it's any consolation, I don't believe the Falcons were ever truly at 99%+ win probability, in the Super Bowl or in those blown leads this regular season. Most WP models, in my opinion, highly over/understate the true WP as they approach the extremes. Obviously ATL had a very high P(winning), but perhaps it was 96-97% rather than 99+. Seems like a minor difference, but from the NE side, if the Patriots truly had a 3.5% chance instead of a reported 0.5%, that's a 7x improvement. I've done some analysis on these models and written about it here: https://cfnine.com/blog/nfl-win-probability-part-1 https://cfnine.com/blog/nfl-win-probability-part-1

creaghpatr 6y ago
That is, in fact, NOT ANY CONSOLATION, but this is HN so I have no doubt you are being sincere and I appreciate that. t. Atlanta sports fan