4 ms·

I think that's kind of the GP's point - they are advocating for not being lured by the (scant) potential for enormous gains, and instead taking the easy route t

I think that's kind of the GP's point - they are advocating for not being lured by the (scant) potential for enormous gains, and instead taking the easy route to moderate gains (which will amount to large gains over time, as long as you reinvest). > it probably makes more sense to put 90% in index funds but expose yourself to a bigger upside with stock picking. Does it though? Unless you are an experienced professional financial trader (or are in possession of inside information), you are almost certain to have higher gains over time with indexed funds. If you really want to gamble on individual stocks, you may as well put 90% in index funds and put the rest on a roulette wheel.

WA 6y ago
If you think that your chances are higher at roulette, good for you. Other people take other chances. A few more thoughts: - Maybe you don’t have to be THAT smart to beat the index. - Maybe you don’t have to be consistently good or right or lucky, but only once or twice, because money has a nonlinear utility. If you strike it big in your early thirties, you have a different life than if you consistently save up till 65. - Of course, gambling away your small investment in the beginning might give you less to compound over the years, which results in significant less money at age 65. - Maybe stock picking helps you better to stay invested during booms and busts. I have no answers to these questions and I’m in the process to figure things out for myself right now. However, buying puts on DAX and SPX in February 2020 made me a small fortune, which is now a very real house I just bought. YMMV
- JacobSuperslav 6y ago
  of course it's all possible. but chances are you aren't as bright as you think and just as the other 95-97% of retail investors (actual number based on studies) you won't outgrow the s&p500

WA 6y ago

If you think that your chances are higher at roulette, good for you. Other people take other chances. A few more thoughts: - Maybe you don’t have to be THAT smart to beat the index. - Maybe you don’t have to be consistently good or right or lucky, but only once or twice, because money has a nonlinear utility. If you strike it big in your early thirties, you have a different life than if you consistently save up till 65. - Of course, gambling away your small investment in the beginning might give you less to compound over the years, which results in significant less money at age 65. - Maybe stock picking helps you better to stay invested during booms and busts. I have no answers to these questions and I’m in the process to figure things out for myself right now. However, buying puts on DAX and SPX in February 2020 made me a small fortune, which is now a very real house I just bought. YMMV

JacobSuperslav 6y ago
of course it's all possible. but chances are you aren't as bright as you think and just as the other 95-97% of retail investors (actual number based on studies) you won't outgrow the s&p500