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One thing I hope we take away from this is that just like we way over provision food production here in the States as a matter of national security, we should b

One thing I hope we take away from this is that just like we way over provision food production here in the States as a matter of national security, we should build out massive amounts of vaccine manufacturing capability. The federal government should massively invest in MRNA manufacturing or whatever other vaccine technologies make the most sense and lease the facilities out at a loss if need be to pharma during normal times. Or just subsidize pharma to have massive amounts of capacity ready to churn out 5-10 million doses a day. I don't really care how it happens, I just want the capability as a society and I'm willing to pay for it.

m-ee 6y ago
This already exists, it’s called BARDA
atleta 6y ago
It's partially a transient problem: mRNA vaccines is new technology that has never seen commercial use, so it's expected that initially you'll have production capacity problems. (Not to say that countries should not prepare for future pandemics.)
peytn 6y ago
We could have a futures market for doses. That way the government doesn’t have to pick winners in the drug development arena, something it historically isn’t very good at.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  We could have ordered 300 million courses each of the top 5 or 10 vaccine candidates for, in essence, peanuts. $2 billion for Oxford. $3 billion for J&J. $20 billion for Novavax. $24 billion for Pfizer (at worst price). $48 billion for Moderna (again, worst price). You end up with a billion vaccines you don't need, you give them away. This is likely an over-investment if you consider the US in isolation (for instance, all 5 vaccines work well to reduce symptomatic and serious infections).
  - dukeyukey 6y ago
    That's exactly what the UK did, they ordered over 400 million doses of various vaccines before major trials had even begun, and intends on giving spare supply away, starting with Ireland. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/31/britain-give-ireland-priority-sharing-covid-vaccines/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/31/britain-give...
  - peytn 6y ago
    I’m not sure rapid procurement is as simple as government money in, doses out. Incentives must align.
  - jbullock35 6y ago
    > We could have ordered 300 million courses each of the top 5 or 10 vaccine candidates for, in essence, peanuts. It sounds as though you're talking about the advance purchases that the U.S. made as part of its "Operation Warp Speed" -- except that you (reasonably) would have liked those purchases to be even larger than they were. See especially the table in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-29/inside-operation-warp-speed-s-18-billion-sprint-for-a-vaccine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-29/inside-op...
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      Yeah, I'm aware of the of the advance purchases. And I wouldn't say I'm arguing for them to be "even larger", as I'm saying that 5x larger would be a good starting point. For the less expensive vaccines it doesn't make any sense at all that they ordered 100 million doses instead of 300 million. For the mRNA vaccines I have a lot of questions about how hard they tried to identify potential bottlenecks in say, July (but I don't think there is much information available to decide in either direction.).
      - peytn 6y ago
        Why would ordering more doses help?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

m-ee 6y ago

This already exists, it’s called BARDA

atleta 6y ago

It's partially a transient problem: mRNA vaccines is new technology that has never seen commercial use, so it's expected that initially you'll have production capacity problems. (Not to say that countries should not prepare for future pandemics.)

peytn 6y ago

We could have a futures market for doses. That way the government doesn’t have to pick winners in the drug development arena, something it historically isn’t very good at.

maxerickson 6y ago
We could have ordered 300 million courses each of the top 5 or 10 vaccine candidates for, in essence, peanuts. $2 billion for Oxford. $3 billion for J&J. $20 billion for Novavax. $24 billion for Pfizer (at worst price). $48 billion for Moderna (again, worst price). You end up with a billion vaccines you don't need, you give them away. This is likely an over-investment if you consider the US in isolation (for instance, all 5 vaccines work well to reduce symptomatic and serious infections).
- dukeyukey 6y ago
  That's exactly what the UK did, they ordered over 400 million doses of various vaccines before major trials had even begun, and intends on giving spare supply away, starting with Ireland. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/31/britain-give-ireland-priority-sharing-covid-vaccines/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/31/britain-give...
- peytn 6y ago
  I’m not sure rapid procurement is as simple as government money in, doses out. Incentives must align.
- jbullock35 6y ago
  > We could have ordered 300 million courses each of the top 5 or 10 vaccine candidates for, in essence, peanuts. It sounds as though you're talking about the advance purchases that the U.S. made as part of its "Operation Warp Speed" -- except that you (reasonably) would have liked those purchases to be even larger than they were. See especially the table in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-29/inside-operation-warp-speed-s-18-billion-sprint-for-a-vaccine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-29/inside-op...
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Yeah, I'm aware of the of the advance purchases. And I wouldn't say I'm arguing for them to be "even larger", as I'm saying that 5x larger would be a good starting point. For the less expensive vaccines it doesn't make any sense at all that they ordered 100 million doses instead of 300 million. For the mRNA vaccines I have a lot of questions about how hard they tried to identify potential bottlenecks in say, July (but I don't think there is much information available to decide in either direction.).
    - peytn 6y ago
      Why would ordering more doses help?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]