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I’ve heard this sentiment call hundreds of tech bubbles since the dotcom boom, and we’ve seen only one in an unrelated sector. I am not saying it isn’t a bubble

I’ve heard this sentiment call hundreds of tech bubbles since the dotcom boom, and we’ve seen only one in an unrelated sector. I am not saying it isn’t a bubble, just that market enthusiasm tends to look like a bubble but happens all the time without crashing everything.

vkou 6y ago
This is the correct take on it. That kind of analysis has predicted eighteen of the last three bubbles. The problem is that while, say, stocks are frothy, eventually inflation catches up to the froth - so even when the crash happens, you end up better off than if you sat the frothy market out on the sidelines. It doesn't help to be right in the direction of the market, when you're wrong in the timing of it.
- brewdad 6y ago
  Agreed. As much as I wished I had sold some positions last February when it was clear something big was building in Asia, I am confident that I wouldn't have had the guts to buy back in after the crash and would have missed out on the rebound gains. In the end, I'm probably better off having held and continuing to buy every couple of weeks throughout than trying to time the market swings from COVID.
  - oarsinsync 6y ago
    > As much as I wished I had sold some positions last February when it was clear something big was building in Asia I did this. > I am confident that I wouldn't have had the guts to buy back in after the crash and would have missed out on the rebound gains. I did this too. > In the end, I'm probably better off having held and continuing to buy every couple of weeks throughout than trying to time the market swings from COVID. I wish I'd done this.
    - 100721 6y ago
      Would you mind sharing some of your experience? I'm super interested.
freewilly1040 6y ago
What's possibly different with this alleged bubble is the influx of retail into the market and day trading in general. The wallstreetbets sub has grown at least 3x during this episode, and I know personally of several people who were previously uninterested in stocks now looking to trade.
- mattnewton 6y ago
  Sure, but then the argument for it being a bubble is “it is different this time.” It could be, I don’t know! But plenty of interest in retail investing has not resulted in a bust before.
ROARosen 6y ago
Exactly, the market is definitely overenthusiastic which we can call a bubble. So we keep on hearing all those claiming it is a bubble in the sense that it will imminently "pop" because people will always want to say "I predicted the bubble will pop". So they will wake up every few months (when the market peaks yet again) and shout "bubble, bubble" so that just in case it happens now they can be the foresighted ones. The amount of times we've heard "bubble" over past few years, even while/if true, in of itself keeps people from taking it seriously.

vkou 6y ago

This is the correct take on it. That kind of analysis has predicted eighteen of the last three bubbles. The problem is that while, say, stocks are frothy, eventually inflation catches up to the froth - so even when the crash happens, you end up better off than if you sat the frothy market out on the sidelines. It doesn't help to be right in the direction of the market, when you're wrong in the timing of it.

brewdad 6y ago
Agreed. As much as I wished I had sold some positions last February when it was clear something big was building in Asia, I am confident that I wouldn't have had the guts to buy back in after the crash and would have missed out on the rebound gains. In the end, I'm probably better off having held and continuing to buy every couple of weeks throughout than trying to time the market swings from COVID.
- oarsinsync 6y ago
  > As much as I wished I had sold some positions last February when it was clear something big was building in Asia I did this. > I am confident that I wouldn't have had the guts to buy back in after the crash and would have missed out on the rebound gains. I did this too. > In the end, I'm probably better off having held and continuing to buy every couple of weeks throughout than trying to time the market swings from COVID. I wish I'd done this.
  - 100721 6y ago
    Would you mind sharing some of your experience? I'm super interested.

freewilly1040 6y ago

What's possibly different with this alleged bubble is the influx of retail into the market and day trading in general. The wallstreetbets sub has grown at least 3x during this episode, and I know personally of several people who were previously uninterested in stocks now looking to trade.

mattnewton 6y ago
Sure, but then the argument for it being a bubble is “it is different this time.” It could be, I don’t know! But plenty of interest in retail investing has not resulted in a bust before.

ROARosen 6y ago

Exactly, the market is definitely overenthusiastic which we can call a bubble. So we keep on hearing all those claiming it is a bubble in the sense that it will imminently "pop" because people will always want to say "I predicted the bubble will pop". So they will wake up every few months (when the market peaks yet again) and shout "bubble, bubble" so that just in case it happens now they can be the foresighted ones. The amount of times we've heard "bubble" over past few years, even while/if true, in of itself keeps people from taking it seriously.