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I love Derek's writing, but aren't we likely within a few weeks of non-RNA vaccines in the US via Johnson and Johnson, though? He didn't really answer--can tha

by ericb 6y ago

I love Derek's writing, but aren't we likely within a few weeks of non-RNA vaccines in the US via Johnson and Johnson, though? He didn't really answer--can that one be scaled since it has more standard dependencies? If so, isn't the "naive" question perfectly valid in that case?

chaganated 6y ago
Even though I know very little about vaccines, this article has a paid PR smell. These kinds of technocratic problems have short and long answers. He skipped one, and danced around the other.
- natechols 6y ago
  He's been writing on these subjects for years, and nothing in this article would be a surprise to anyone who has read him before or has even a passing familiarity with the pharma industry. (Also, he's always been totally up-front about his conflicts of interests and political views, and acknowledges when pharma companies screw up.) I think there are fewer serious long answers to this problem than you expect - they tend to hinge on "wave hands and solve central planning problem".
vernie 6y ago
Derek's blog is great but he's a bit of a stooge for his industry, so he plays dumb sometimes.
tpm 6y ago
He is responding to a tweet that explicitly mentions Pfizer and Moderna.
bluGill 6y ago
J&J doesn't really need to be scaled up because they alone have the ability to produce so much of it. That said, I'd prefer to get the mRNA vaccines as they seem much more effective, so any scaling up done there is still useful even if J&J alone could get rid of Covid in the US in a few months. (pending need to vaccinate kids for herd immunity, Pfizer is the farthest along that path, but not close to mass vaccination)
- whycombagator 6y ago
  > I'd prefer to get the mRNA vaccines as they seem much more effective I am still unsure which route seems best. Don’t mRNA vaccines target the spike protein? The spike is a topic of debate currently as mutations/changes to the spike (South African variant etc) may affect mRNA vaccines more? Moderna themselves are developing a booster shot targeting the SA variant & a separate booster for all the other variants (U.K. et al) for this very reason (read: you’ll need 2 doses of vaccine & 2 booster shots for full protection against all current forms of COVID/virus) So the mRNA route might well be 4 shots for just the variants we know about. That isn’t to say non mRNA vaccines (AstraZeneca, J&J) won’t also have the same issues (decreased effectiveness against the mutated virus ) but from what I’ve read it seems more likely to affect mRNA
  - ericb 6y ago
    They almost all target the spike, including J&J and non-mrna vaccines. The vaccines all "work" against the variants in the sense of "no severe illness, and no deaths." So yes, you might "get" a variant, but to my mind, that's still a huge win! As for boosters, I don't mind and don't care if I'm already in a category that prevents the severe cases.
    - whycombagator 6y ago
      > They almost all target the spike, including J&J and non-mrna vaccines. You are correct. That being said, the targeting of the spike protein for the adenovirus vaccines is different to mRNA vaccines[0] I have done some more reading & have seen the recent news of AZ & J&J having less effectiveness against the South African variant. With one positive for J&J being that their trial ran later than the other current crop of vaccines & part of the trial was done in South Africa - so more data is available[1]. Additionally, mRNA vaccines have been associated with instances of anaphylaxis[1], which has yet to be observed with the adenovirus vaccines (which could be due to mechanism, or that they have been used on less of the global populous to date). Furthermore, there is a strange "benign" rash appearing on peoples arms after being administered the mRNA vaccine - we are being told it's harmless, but also that nobody knows what it is precisely. You can look up "COVID arm" for details. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/johnson-john... [1] https://www.kqed.org/science/1972627/the-differences-between-the-pfizer-moderna-and-johnson-johnson-coronavirus-vaccines-explained https://www.kqed.org/science/1972627/the-differences-between...

by ericb 6y ago

chaganated 6y ago

Even though I know very little about vaccines, this article has a paid PR smell. These kinds of technocratic problems have short and long answers. He skipped one, and danced around the other.

natechols 6y ago
He's been writing on these subjects for years, and nothing in this article would be a surprise to anyone who has read him before or has even a passing familiarity with the pharma industry. (Also, he's always been totally up-front about his conflicts of interests and political views, and acknowledges when pharma companies screw up.) I think there are fewer serious long answers to this problem than you expect - they tend to hinge on "wave hands and solve central planning problem".

vernie 6y ago

Derek's blog is great but he's a bit of a stooge for his industry, so he plays dumb sometimes.

tpm 6y ago

He is responding to a tweet that explicitly mentions Pfizer and Moderna.

bluGill 6y ago

J&J doesn't really need to be scaled up because they alone have the ability to produce so much of it. That said, I'd prefer to get the mRNA vaccines as they seem much more effective, so any scaling up done there is still useful even if J&J alone could get rid of Covid in the US in a few months. (pending need to vaccinate kids for herd immunity, Pfizer is the farthest along that path, but not close to mass vaccination)

whycombagator 6y ago
> I'd prefer to get the mRNA vaccines as they seem much more effective I am still unsure which route seems best. Don’t mRNA vaccines target the spike protein? The spike is a topic of debate currently as mutations/changes to the spike (South African variant etc) may affect mRNA vaccines more? Moderna themselves are developing a booster shot targeting the SA variant & a separate booster for all the other variants (U.K. et al) for this very reason (read: you’ll need 2 doses of vaccine & 2 booster shots for full protection against all current forms of COVID/virus) So the mRNA route might well be 4 shots for just the variants we know about. That isn’t to say non mRNA vaccines (AstraZeneca, J&J) won’t also have the same issues (decreased effectiveness against the mutated virus ) but from what I’ve read it seems more likely to affect mRNA
- ericb 6y ago
  They almost all target the spike, including J&J and non-mrna vaccines. The vaccines all "work" against the variants in the sense of "no severe illness, and no deaths." So yes, you might "get" a variant, but to my mind, that's still a huge win! As for boosters, I don't mind and don't care if I'm already in a category that prevents the severe cases.
  - whycombagator 6y ago
    > They almost all target the spike, including J&J and non-mrna vaccines. You are correct. That being said, the targeting of the spike protein for the adenovirus vaccines is different to mRNA vaccines[0] I have done some more reading & have seen the recent news of AZ & J&J having less effectiveness against the South African variant. With one positive for J&J being that their trial ran later than the other current crop of vaccines & part of the trial was done in South Africa - so more data is available[1]. Additionally, mRNA vaccines have been associated with instances of anaphylaxis[1], which has yet to be observed with the adenovirus vaccines (which could be due to mechanism, or that they have been used on less of the global populous to date). Furthermore, there is a strange "benign" rash appearing on peoples arms after being administered the mRNA vaccine - we are being told it's harmless, but also that nobody knows what it is precisely. You can look up "COVID arm" for details. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/johnson-john... [1] https://www.kqed.org/science/1972627/the-differences-between-the-pfizer-moderna-and-johnson-johnson-coronavirus-vaccines-explained https://www.kqed.org/science/1972627/the-differences-between...