>If I truly believe I have a better guess about whether a stock is going to go up than the general market consensus then I do stand a chance of making money rig

>If I truly believe I have a better guess about whether a stock is going to go up than the general market consensus then I do stand a chance of making money right? Yes but options aren't just about direction, they're about timing too. The thing about holding a stock is you only have to be right about one thing but with options you have to be right about two.