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The problem won't be with the warmest temperatures. People in places like the Middle East and Australia are used to boiling hot summers and a couple of degrees

by brabel 6y ago

The problem won't be with the warmest temperatures. People in places like the Middle East and Australia are used to boiling hot summers and a couple of degrees hotter will probably be just a little bit more uncomfortable... what will completely change the world is the range of diseases and insects changing drastically. Places like the Amazon and the African rainforests are currently very hard to live in because of tropical disease. These areas are bound to expand by quite a lot, perhaps reaching places like southern Europe and USA. This, together with the shift in agriculture and sea levels, is what will bring an amount of chaos to the world. Far north places like Scandinavia and Canada might actually benefit a little bit by being able to grow crops that they currently can't due to their harsh winters and cold nights all over the year! But their southern neighbours will surely suffer a lot, and that's where most of the population currently is.

arethuza 6y ago
As far as I understand it there is a pretty hard upper limit on the combination of temperature and humidity that people can survive: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-and-humidity-are-already-reaching-the-limits-of-human-tolerance/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-and-humidity... What might happen is portrayed pretty vividly at the start of Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future [And yes I know this is a novel].
- CaptArmchair 6y ago
  I'll add to that that excess mortality has been linked to subsequent heatwaves of the past 20 years in Europe. Here's a primer from the European Environment Agency with a projection: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heat-and-health-2/assessment https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heat-and-... > The PESETA study estimates that, without adaptation and physiological acclimatisation, heat-related mortality in Europe would increase by between 60 000 and 165 000 deaths per year by the 2080s compared with the present baseline, with the highest impacts in southern Europe. [...] > Another study estimates that climate change will lead to an increase in hospital admissions owing to heat-related respiratory diseases from 11 000 admissions (0.18 %) in the period 1981–2010 to 26 000 (0.4 %) in 2021–2050. The total number of hospital admissions and the increase as a result of climate change are largest in southern Europe, with the proportion of heat-related admissions for respiratory conditions expected to approximately triple in this region over this time period [...] On the other hand... > The PESETA study estimated that cold-related mortality would decrease by between 60 000 and 250 000 deaths per year by the 2080s, which is about the same magnitude as the projected increase in heat-related mortality [xx]. The PESETA II study no longer considers a potential reduction in cold-related mortality in its climate impact estimates [xxi]. The choice not to include cold spells reflects recent evidence that does not suggest a significant shift in the balance of deaths between winters and summers because of lower cold-related mortality [xxii]. However, the risk from (moderate) cold is expected to continue to account for most of the temperature-related risk throughout this century [xxiii].

by brabel 6y ago

arethuza 6y ago

As far as I understand it there is a pretty hard upper limit on the combination of temperature and humidity that people can survive: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-and-humidity-are-already-reaching-the-limits-of-human-tolerance/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-and-humidity... What might happen is portrayed pretty vividly at the start of Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future [And yes I know this is a novel].

CaptArmchair 6y ago
I'll add to that that excess mortality has been linked to subsequent heatwaves of the past 20 years in Europe. Here's a primer from the European Environment Agency with a projection: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heat-and-health-2/assessment https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heat-and-... > The PESETA study estimates that, without adaptation and physiological acclimatisation, heat-related mortality in Europe would increase by between 60 000 and 165 000 deaths per year by the 2080s compared with the present baseline, with the highest impacts in southern Europe. [...] > Another study estimates that climate change will lead to an increase in hospital admissions owing to heat-related respiratory diseases from 11 000 admissions (0.18 %) in the period 1981–2010 to 26 000 (0.4 %) in 2021–2050. The total number of hospital admissions and the increase as a result of climate change are largest in southern Europe, with the proportion of heat-related admissions for respiratory conditions expected to approximately triple in this region over this time period [...] On the other hand... > The PESETA study estimated that cold-related mortality would decrease by between 60 000 and 250 000 deaths per year by the 2080s, which is about the same magnitude as the projected increase in heat-related mortality [xx]. The PESETA II study no longer considers a potential reduction in cold-related mortality in its climate impact estimates [xxi]. The choice not to include cold spells reflects recent evidence that does not suggest a significant shift in the balance of deaths between winters and summers because of lower cold-related mortality [xxii]. However, the risk from (moderate) cold is expected to continue to account for most of the temperature-related risk throughout this century [xxiii].