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I don't understand the reporting on this subject. Why would anyone think that GME, AMC etc would stay up?

Clewza313 6y ago
The dominant WSB narrative appears to be that the real short squeeze hasn't happened yet, the falling price is due to market manipulation, indicators showing that shorts are back to 50% instead of last week's 140% are all fake, and it's going back to the moon anytime now. Needless to say, it's requiring increasing levels of disconnect from reality to believe that this is actually the case. Here's a lengthy but interesting WSB analysis of the various theories: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbaktb/sober_review_time_what_are_the_actual_data_we_can/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbaktb/sobe... My favorite bit: Argument #4: Market manipulation shenanigans didn't work, and retailers didn't sell off en masse, creating the liquidity shorts need to close cheaply. Claim: Price dips happened during low volume trading (short ladder market manipulation etc), and the longs are holding fast. Counterevidence: THE MOTHERFUCKING $300 PRICE DROP YOU DUMB FUCKING NUGGETS
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Not to be rude to a new account, but I have spoken to legitimate investment managers (who are licensed to have assets under management) who believe there is a still a reasonable possibility of a squeeze occurring (refer to the 800 strike on the GME options chain [1] [2], specifically the volume and open interest on those contracts, and the ongoing failure to deliver shares reports from the SEC [3] [4]). That's not to say WSB isn't....exuberant. They are, but that doesn't mean everyone in there is delusional. Maybe it goes back to $5, maybe it goes up, but it's pretty hard to say between retail, institutional, and what is going on behind the scenes. We departed fundamentals and technicals a while ago, and it's not easy to pick out the signal from the noise. Disclaimer: Not an advisor, not investment advice, comment is for educational purposes only. Thoughts and opinions are my own. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?strike=800&straddle=false https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?strike=800&strad... [3] https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm (most recent zip file, extract and grep GME) [4] https://wherearetheshares.com/ https://wherearetheshares.com/
  - Clewza313 6y ago
    No offense taken, I agree there's a non-zero chance that GME goes up again. However, alleging that the ticker price is "fake" or that the short interest analytics reports are all shills etc is veering pretty strongly into QAnon territory.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      No disagreement. As a cohort grows, you're always going to get more outliers. Hard to police a crowd that big. My intent was to stress that it is possible to separate the logical thesis from the conspiracy speak, which is necessary when you have 8 million users shouting into the same void (up from ~2 million a few weeks ago).

The dominant WSB narrative appears to be that the real short squeeze hasn't happened yet, the falling price is due to market manipulation, indicators showing that shorts are back to 50% instead of last week's 140% are all fake, and it's going back to the moon anytime now. Needless to say, it's requiring increasing levels of disconnect from reality to believe that this is actually the case. Here's a lengthy but interesting WSB analysis of the various theories: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbaktb/sober_review_time_what_are_the_actual_data_we_can/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbaktb/sobe... My favorite bit: Argument #4: Market manipulation shenanigans didn't work, and retailers didn't sell off en masse, creating the liquidity shorts need to close cheaply. Claim: Price dips happened during low volume trading (short ladder market manipulation etc), and the longs are holding fast. Counterevidence: THE MOTHERFUCKING $300 PRICE DROP YOU DUMB FUCKING NUGGETS

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Not to be rude to a new account, but I have spoken to legitimate investment managers (who are licensed to have assets under management) who believe there is a still a reasonable possibility of a squeeze occurring (refer to the 800 strike on the GME options chain [1] [2], specifically the volume and open interest on those contracts, and the ongoing failure to deliver shares reports from the SEC [3] [4]). That's not to say WSB isn't....exuberant. They are, but that doesn't mean everyone in there is delusional. Maybe it goes back to $5, maybe it goes up, but it's pretty hard to say between retail, institutional, and what is going on behind the scenes. We departed fundamentals and technicals a while ago, and it's not easy to pick out the signal from the noise. Disclaimer: Not an advisor, not investment advice, comment is for educational purposes only. Thoughts and opinions are my own. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?strike=800&straddle=false https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?strike=800&strad... [3] https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm (most recent zip file, extract and grep GME) [4] https://wherearetheshares.com/ https://wherearetheshares.com/
- Clewza313 6y ago
  No offense taken, I agree there's a non-zero chance that GME goes up again. However, alleging that the ticker price is "fake" or that the short interest analytics reports are all shills etc is veering pretty strongly into QAnon territory.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    No disagreement. As a cohort grows, you're always going to get more outliers. Hard to police a crowd that big. My intent was to stress that it is possible to separate the logical thesis from the conspiracy speak, which is necessary when you have 8 million users shouting into the same void (up from ~2 million a few weeks ago).