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So prior to all this recent mania, the core WallStreeBets forum had a pretty convincing bullish case. That has been thoroughly lost. I won't repeat it here, bu

by mox1 6y ago

So prior to all this recent mania, the core WallStreeBets forum had a pretty convincing bullish case. That has been thoroughly lost. I won't repeat it here, but it involves the founder of chewy.com buying 12% of the company, getting 3 board seats,(already happened) and transforming it into more of an e-commerce play (hopefully happens). Think along the lines of Best Buy at its low vs. today and a pretty darn good e-commerce guy on the board (and perhaps ceo soon).

Rapzid 6y ago
I don't find that a very convincing case, and $50 sounds like a pipedream even then. BestBuy already exists and sells all that stuff. Along with Newegg, Amazon, Steam, Epic, Greenman gaming, Origin, etc. How do they avoid just becoming another also-ran? Another company that had pretty good e-commerce side, with some pretty attractive deals on good stuff, that's going through bankruptcy right now is JCPenney(being sold). The GameStop brand is prob their most valuable asset. Maybe their best bet is to position for a sale.
valuearb 6y ago
That’s a type of bull case, the one that ends in ..it, not fundamentals. There is almost nothing in Chewys business model applicable to GameStop. Games can be delivered digitally and increasingly are and will be. GME can only be an expensive middleman in that transaction. And selling physical games off an e-commerce site is a competitive business. Unlike chewy it doesn’t benefit from a massive amount of subscription purchases, and remember Chewy hemorrhaged losses for over 5 years. So if you want to bet all those hundreds of leases bleeding GameStop dry can be cheaply broken, or converted into assets with a web site delivering physical games that can somehow be competitive with Amazon et al, the “fundamental” algorithm requires estimating chance of success. And no, you don’t get to use 100%, because that’s delusional. So 50% change they get turned into a medium profitable retailer worth $50 a share and 50% chance they bleed to death means you estimate a few years from now your average valuation of $25.

by mox1 6y ago

Rapzid 6y ago

I don't find that a very convincing case, and $50 sounds like a pipedream even then. BestBuy already exists and sells all that stuff. Along with Newegg, Amazon, Steam, Epic, Greenman gaming, Origin, etc. How do they avoid just becoming another also-ran? Another company that had pretty good e-commerce side, with some pretty attractive deals on good stuff, that's going through bankruptcy right now is JCPenney(being sold). The GameStop brand is prob their most valuable asset. Maybe their best bet is to position for a sale.

valuearb 6y ago

That’s a type of bull case, the one that ends in ..it, not fundamentals. There is almost nothing in Chewys business model applicable to GameStop. Games can be delivered digitally and increasingly are and will be. GME can only be an expensive middleman in that transaction. And selling physical games off an e-commerce site is a competitive business. Unlike chewy it doesn’t benefit from a massive amount of subscription purchases, and remember Chewy hemorrhaged losses for over 5 years. So if you want to bet all those hundreds of leases bleeding GameStop dry can be cheaply broken, or converted into assets with a web site delivering physical games that can somehow be competitive with Amazon et al, the “fundamental” algorithm requires estimating chance of success. And no, you don’t get to use 100%, because that’s delusional. So 50% change they get turned into a medium profitable retailer worth $50 a share and 50% chance they bleed to death means you estimate a few years from now your average valuation of $25.