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The article is really not as definitive about it as I was expecting from the title. Basically it’s “we don’t really know, we don’t even really examine most sou
by cactus2093 6y ago
The article is really not as definitive about it as I was expecting from the title.
Basically it’s “we don’t really know, we don’t even really examine most sources of infection, we’ve never done controlled trials on it, you can find the virus on lots of surfaces, most of the time it’s probably not infectious but sometimes it could be, there have been a few documented cases of infections from surfaces”.
It’s clearly a lower risk than airborne transmission but it seems like we can’t say with much certainty how low.
The only estimate of a risk probability mentioned is a 5 in 10000 chance of being infected if you’re out in public touching things. Not even sure if this was from a real study or just an expert’s back of the envelope calculation. I don’t know exactly the parameters involved but if you had taken that chance every day for the past year you would have had a 17% chance of getting infected at some point which is relatively significant. And seems like it would be likely worse at times the outbreak is at a higher peak, or if you’re an essential worker taking that chance multiple times a day.
- stdbrouw 6y agoNitpick: really more like a 15% chance over 11 months. 1 - (1 - 5/10000)^330 => 0.152 (But I think you make a great point, it sounds like a tiny chance but it really does add up.)
- d1sxeyes 6y agoIt's a bizarre measure, why wouldn't you mention it as 1 in 2000 unless you're deliberately trying to make the denominator look bigger.