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My understanding is that Sweden's strategy seemed effective only until a couple months passed. When more data was available, Sweden's death toll fared poorly co

My understanding is that Sweden's strategy seemed effective only until a couple months passed. When more data was available, Sweden's death toll fared poorly compared to neighboring countries. The last time I noticed a news update on this was several weeks ago. Either the situation has switched back to Sweden's favor (seems unlikely), or your news source on this story is several months out of date. Aside from that, Sweden's strategy was predicated on assumptions about Swedish society and climate, so even on its own terms (with which I don't necessarily agree), it wouldn't transplant to countries where people speak to, and associate with, strangers more often.

jjgreen 6y ago
That speaks rather to the media that you're reading. I just had a quick look at the numbers; Sweden's doing rather well at the moment, yet this is unreported. When it looks to be doing relatively badly, it's all over the press.
- gus_massa 6y ago
  All the media is equal. They report when there are is something important, where important usually means a lot of death. (And in sometimes zero cases for a long time, but death sells more.) For data, I use https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=table&zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-01-26..latest&country=&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=tab... I use a window of 1 week, because there is too much daily variation (nobody likes to fill paperwork on weekends). Sweden is now in the 22th position in death per million. In two weeks, it will be in the 24th position assuming the simplified model were death rate remain constant. (This is an useful approximation for one of two weeks. Using this approximation for longer periods is a bad idea.)

jjgreen 6y ago

That speaks rather to the media that you're reading. I just had a quick look at the numbers; Sweden's doing rather well at the moment, yet this is unreported. When it looks to be doing relatively badly, it's all over the press.

gus_massa 6y ago
All the media is equal. They report when there are is something important, where important usually means a lot of death. (And in sometimes zero cases for a long time, but death sells more.) For data, I use https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=table&zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-01-26..latest&country=&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=tab... I use a window of 1 week, because there is too much daily variation (nobody likes to fill paperwork on weekends). Sweden is now in the 22th position in death per million. In two weeks, it will be in the 24th position assuming the simplified model were death rate remain constant. (This is an useful approximation for one of two weeks. Using this approximation for longer periods is a bad idea.)