This assumption alone holds OP's argument from folding: > To determine the probability of not just one thing but of a whole bunch of things that are causally u

This assumption alone holds OP's argument from folding: > To determine the probability of not just one thing but of a whole bunch of things that are causally unconnected happening together, we multiply the individual probabilities You can multiply probabilities of individual events only if you know they are independent, i.e. their correlation is zero (as opposed to anything involving causation). I am not convinced that the molecules that were once in one place would get distributed to zero correlation even after 2000+ years. Well, this at least requires an analysis on its own.