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One of author's big points was that they didn't believe that Germany actually needed the extra natural gas in the first place

danbruc 6y ago
Then finish it and just keep it as a backup? Sure that will cost some more money but redundancy always costs money. Maybe especially if most of the money has already been spend - if you abandon it now, you get nothing for all the money, if you spent a bit more, you get some redundancy. And if more gas is not needed to begin with, then it should not really matter whether it gets finished or not. On the other hand I have no idea what value such redundancy would have, maybe it is not worth it. And that is probably all a bit naive, I did not follow this issue.
avmich 6y ago
It's long known that Europe can decouple itself from Russian gas - not only issues of climate, but also economy (long-term) and politics point there. It's the usual short-term business interest which is driving the project.
iSnow 6y ago
I doubt Germany is known for doing senseless things for no good reasons, so here I believe the author is missing some crucial piece of information: - Germany is currently mainly depending on Russia, The Netherlands, and Norway for gas (https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/DEU https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/DEU). - The Netherlands will phase out gas production (in decline since 2013: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/VortraegeVeranstaltungen/MRU/vantHof_MRUApril2019.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sac...) and since an earth quake caused by gas production, faster than anticipated: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/VortraegeVeranstaltungen/MRU/van%20%27t%20Hof_MRUApril2017.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3 https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sac... - the 20 billion cm^3 the Dutch export to Germany make up roughly 20% of German demand (~88b cm^3: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consumption-germany/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu...) so that's a demand that must be filled. So, there is a 20% shortfall over the next 10y and till decarbonization reduces demand. Germany is getting gas from Azerbaijan via AP (https://www.oedigital.com/news/484249-azerbaijan-starts-gas-exports-to-europe https://www.oedigital.com/news/484249-azerbaijan-starts-gas-..., but TAP is only able to deliver 20b cm^3 (https://www.dw.com/en/southern-gas-corridor-project-about-to-come-on-stream/a-55555077 https://www.dw.com/en/southern-gas-corridor-project-about-to...), and not all of that goes to Europe. And Turkey has a choke hold on the gas transports, much like Ukraine has on the Yamal pipeline. I am not an expert in natural gas markets, but it seems obvious that Germany needs to replace the Dutch shortfall either: - From Russia - From Norway, but they might want to get out of fossil fuels (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2196024-norway-is-starting-the-worlds-biggest-divestment-in-oil-and-gas/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2196024-norway-is-start...) and their gas is also needed to replace coal consumption in Germany - From the UK, but reserves are dwindling - From the USA, but fracking gas is expensive, has a bad reputation in Germany and carrier transports might be less reliable than pipelines - From Azerbaijan which is an autocratic country with a lot of potential for violence, which also just started a war. => None of the options are pretty.
- v4dok 6y ago
  - From SouthEast europe, but Germany is also in bed with Turkey so they don't want to touch that side of EU either. It is painfully apparent how strategically inadequate Germany is in leading anything except its exports.
dathinab 6y ago
> extra natural gas But who says it's about extra natural gas? It's actually more about more reliable, easier and cheaper natural gas supply. Germany has been depending on Russian gas since probably well before I was born...

danbruc 6y ago

Then finish it and just keep it as a backup? Sure that will cost some more money but redundancy always costs money. Maybe especially if most of the money has already been spend - if you abandon it now, you get nothing for all the money, if you spent a bit more, you get some redundancy. And if more gas is not needed to begin with, then it should not really matter whether it gets finished or not. On the other hand I have no idea what value such redundancy would have, maybe it is not worth it. And that is probably all a bit naive, I did not follow this issue.

avmich 6y ago

It's long known that Europe can decouple itself from Russian gas - not only issues of climate, but also economy (long-term) and politics point there. It's the usual short-term business interest which is driving the project.

iSnow 6y ago

I doubt Germany is known for doing senseless things for no good reasons, so here I believe the author is missing some crucial piece of information: - Germany is currently mainly depending on Russia, The Netherlands, and Norway for gas (https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/DEU https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/DEU). - The Netherlands will phase out gas production (in decline since 2013: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/VortraegeVeranstaltungen/MRU/vantHof_MRUApril2019.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sac...) and since an earth quake caused by gas production, faster than anticipated: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/VortraegeVeranstaltungen/MRU/van%20%27t%20Hof_MRUApril2017.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3 https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sac... - the 20 billion cm^3 the Dutch export to Germany make up roughly 20% of German demand (~88b cm^3: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consumption-germany/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu...) so that's a demand that must be filled. So, there is a 20% shortfall over the next 10y and till decarbonization reduces demand. Germany is getting gas from Azerbaijan via AP (https://www.oedigital.com/news/484249-azerbaijan-starts-gas-exports-to-europe https://www.oedigital.com/news/484249-azerbaijan-starts-gas-..., but TAP is only able to deliver 20b cm^3 (https://www.dw.com/en/southern-gas-corridor-project-about-to-come-on-stream/a-55555077 https://www.dw.com/en/southern-gas-corridor-project-about-to...), and not all of that goes to Europe. And Turkey has a choke hold on the gas transports, much like Ukraine has on the Yamal pipeline. I am not an expert in natural gas markets, but it seems obvious that Germany needs to replace the Dutch shortfall either: - From Russia - From Norway, but they might want to get out of fossil fuels (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2196024-norway-is-starting-the-worlds-biggest-divestment-in-oil-and-gas/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2196024-norway-is-start...) and their gas is also needed to replace coal consumption in Germany - From the UK, but reserves are dwindling - From the USA, but fracking gas is expensive, has a bad reputation in Germany and carrier transports might be less reliable than pipelines - From Azerbaijan which is an autocratic country with a lot of potential for violence, which also just started a war. => None of the options are pretty.

v4dok 6y ago
- From SouthEast europe, but Germany is also in bed with Turkey so they don't want to touch that side of EU either. It is painfully apparent how strategically inadequate Germany is in leading anything except its exports.

dathinab 6y ago

> extra natural gas But who says it's about extra natural gas? It's actually more about more reliable, easier and cheaper natural gas supply. Germany has been depending on Russian gas since probably well before I was born...