4 ms·

Have you heard of any coronavirus variants coming out of South Korea, China, or New Zealand? No. That’s because they don’t have uncontrolled spread there, which

Have you heard of any coronavirus variants coming out of South Korea, China, or New Zealand? No. That’s because they don’t have uncontrolled spread there, which leads to mutations due to the virus’s exposure to heterogenous immunity in the population. So uncontrolled spread doesn’t necessarily shorten the duration of the pandemic. All of which is actually incidental to the point I was making, that the hygiene hypothesis is about exposure to dirt and pathogens that prime your immune system for healthy responses. You can have healthy exposure to dirt without exposure to whole classes of viral diseases. No one’s going to say you have to catch Ebola to solve the hygiene hypothesis, for example.

mbg721 6y ago
I think the idea is that not every virus is Covid or Ebola. If you oversanitize your way out of every common cold, then the more serious diseases hit harder.
clairity 6y ago
mutations happen not as a response to effective defenses as implied by 'heterogenous immunity', but because the replication process is chaotic, introducing a range of defects and accidental benefits. it's a random process as likely to prolong as it is to shorten the duration, so has no persuasive power in your direction. as for your second point, we're exposed to coronaviruses of all sorts already (viruses that have spike proteins)--the relevant class of viral disease here--and that's what's likely to have conferred mild/asymptomatic cases in the majority of the infected.
- faitswulff 6y ago
  Immunity plus uncontrolled spread necessarily exposes the virus to selective pressures to mutate resistance to those immunities.
  - clairity 6y ago
    immunity plus spread necessarily exposes the virus to selective pressures. 'uncontrolled' isn't special in this regard.
    - faitswulff 6y ago
      Right, and in places where there is no spread or very limited spread, you will get far fewer successful mutations.
loveistheanswer 6y ago
>Have you heard of any coronavirus variants coming out of South Korea, China, or New Zealand? No. That’s because they don’t have uncontrolled spread there, which leads to mutations due to the virus’s exposure to heterogenous immunity in the population. That's one hypothesis. Don't particular populations already have a degree of natural herd immunity to viruses which are commonly found in their proximity, compared to populations on the other side of the world who do not? Like how Europeans brought their diseases, which they had built up immunity against, to the Americas which then decimated the indigenous populations. Could we hypothesize that many Asians have a stronger natural immunity to covid19?
- faitswulff 6y ago
  The term you’re looking for is cross-reactivity and it’s possible that populations have some cross reactivity to COVID. In fact, I’ve heard a hypothesis that the pandemic of 1890 was the predecessor of one of the common cold coronaviruses. Regardless, New Zealand is clearly not an Asian country.
  - loveistheanswer 6y ago
    Cross-reactivity! Thanks, TIL. New Zealand is obviously a bit of a red herring considering it is an affluent island nation with a low population density.

mbg721 6y ago

I think the idea is that not every virus is Covid or Ebola. If you oversanitize your way out of every common cold, then the more serious diseases hit harder.

clairity 6y ago

mutations happen not as a response to effective defenses as implied by 'heterogenous immunity', but because the replication process is chaotic, introducing a range of defects and accidental benefits. it's a random process as likely to prolong as it is to shorten the duration, so has no persuasive power in your direction. as for your second point, we're exposed to coronaviruses of all sorts already (viruses that have spike proteins)--the relevant class of viral disease here--and that's what's likely to have conferred mild/asymptomatic cases in the majority of the infected.

faitswulff 6y ago
Immunity plus uncontrolled spread necessarily exposes the virus to selective pressures to mutate resistance to those immunities.
- clairity 6y ago
  immunity plus spread necessarily exposes the virus to selective pressures. 'uncontrolled' isn't special in this regard.
  - faitswulff 6y ago
    Right, and in places where there is no spread or very limited spread, you will get far fewer successful mutations.

loveistheanswer 6y ago

>Have you heard of any coronavirus variants coming out of South Korea, China, or New Zealand? No. That’s because they don’t have uncontrolled spread there, which leads to mutations due to the virus’s exposure to heterogenous immunity in the population. That's one hypothesis. Don't particular populations already have a degree of natural herd immunity to viruses which are commonly found in their proximity, compared to populations on the other side of the world who do not? Like how Europeans brought their diseases, which they had built up immunity against, to the Americas which then decimated the indigenous populations. Could we hypothesize that many Asians have a stronger natural immunity to covid19?

faitswulff 6y ago
The term you’re looking for is cross-reactivity and it’s possible that populations have some cross reactivity to COVID. In fact, I’ve heard a hypothesis that the pandemic of 1890 was the predecessor of one of the common cold coronaviruses. Regardless, New Zealand is clearly not an Asian country.
- loveistheanswer 6y ago
  Cross-reactivity! Thanks, TIL. New Zealand is obviously a bit of a red herring considering it is an affluent island nation with a low population density.