You’re still an individual either way. So it’s still better to use expected return. Maybe you could compare and choose an option with less variability or stand

You’re still an individual either way. So it’s still better to use expected return. Maybe you could compare and choose an option with less variability or standard deviation even though the mean return is worse. But these studies don’t compare the size of average losses and gains. I expect that the variance is also better for lump sum.