> I'd rather take a small hit to the expected value of my returns in order to reduce risk of being on the wrong side of that average. This is a common fallacy.

> I'd rather take a small hit to the expected value of my returns in order to reduce risk of being on the wrong side of that average. This is a common fallacy. That is not actually the tradeoff you are making, in fact you are taking a hit to the mean value, and also greatly increasing the chances of being on the wrong side of the average[1]. Dollar cost averaging increases variance and decreases the expected return in proportion to your averaging period. You earn less and have a much lower floor for almost no increase in the ceiling. There are nice visualizations here: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/lump-sum-investing/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/lump-sum-investing/ [1] at least according to history. Who knows what the future holds.