Of all those kinds of chance, the kind that you can really prepare for is really only Chance-type III. Chance I is truly deus-ex-machina stuff you can't forese

Of all those kinds of chance, the kind that you can really prepare for is really only Chance-type III. Chance I is truly deus-ex-machina stuff you can't foresee nor plan for. Chance II encourages randomness and serendipity, but those who lack the ability of discernment and proper focus risk being ADHD never focusing enough on anything to capture any opportunity, should it even emerge. Chance III rewards those who have deepened their knowledge and have stubborn persistence to weather the inevitable rough patches. Because if it's not rough, then it's too obvious, and if it's too obvious, there's no real upside opportunity. You can plan for Chance III and prepare yourself for this. Chance IV is black swan. It is the rarest of conditions where an eccentric hobby results in significant upside. You can't plan for this, and if you do pursue an eccentric hobby you should do it out of pure personal interest rather than planning for a black swan upside opportunity. I have a feeling Marc Andreesen would consider himself to be Chance II or Chance III. And I question if his "luck" can truly be attributable to Chance II but rather his ability to "will" his fortune into being by virtue of being in Chance III.