3 ms·

I’ve had this old post from Marc Andreessen pinned in my mental browser for a long time now. There are four types of luck and you can influence three of them:

I’ve had this old post from Marc Andreessen pinned in my mental browser for a long time now. There are four types of luck and you can influence three of them: Chance I is completely impersonal; you can't influence it. Chance II favors those who have a persistent curiosity about many things coupled with an energetic willingness to experiment and explore. Chance III favors those who have a sufficient background of sound knowledge plus special abilities in observing, remembering, recalling, and quickly forming significant new associations. Chance IV favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors. https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html

rexreed 6y ago
Of all those kinds of chance, the kind that you can really prepare for is really only Chance-type III. Chance I is truly deus-ex-machina stuff you can't foresee nor plan for. Chance II encourages randomness and serendipity, but those who lack the ability of discernment and proper focus risk being ADHD never focusing enough on anything to capture any opportunity, should it even emerge. Chance III rewards those who have deepened their knowledge and have stubborn persistence to weather the inevitable rough patches. Because if it's not rough, then it's too obvious, and if it's too obvious, there's no real upside opportunity. You can plan for Chance III and prepare yourself for this. Chance IV is black swan. It is the rarest of conditions where an eccentric hobby results in significant upside. You can't plan for this, and if you do pursue an eccentric hobby you should do it out of pure personal interest rather than planning for a black swan upside opportunity. I have a feeling Marc Andreesen would consider himself to be Chance II or Chance III. And I question if his "luck" can truly be attributable to Chance II but rather his ability to "will" his fortune into being by virtue of being in Chance III.
- ghaff 6y ago
  And he really owes much of his fortune to Chance I. Right capabilities/decisions but right place/time.
swyx 6y ago
i've tried to quote this to friends before and struggled to remember it, so here's a simple 2 by 2: 1. Accidental Luck (General, Passive luck) - you have the luck of a plant - just lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time 2. Active Luck (General, Active luck) - you have luck from randomly moving around more 3. Prepared Luck (Individual, Passive luck) - you have luck because you've trained yourself to notice when luck happens to you 4. Magnetic Luck (Individual, Active luck) - you have luck because you work on interesting things and people seek you out (i drew it out here: https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck) I also like the way Naval put it: 1. Hope luck finds you. 2. Hustle until you stumble into it. 3. Prepare the mind and be sensitive to chances others miss. 4. Become the best at what you do. Refine what you do until this is true. Opportunity will seek you out. Luck becomes your destiny.

rexreed 6y ago

Of all those kinds of chance, the kind that you can really prepare for is really only Chance-type III. Chance I is truly deus-ex-machina stuff you can't foresee nor plan for. Chance II encourages randomness and serendipity, but those who lack the ability of discernment and proper focus risk being ADHD never focusing enough on anything to capture any opportunity, should it even emerge. Chance III rewards those who have deepened their knowledge and have stubborn persistence to weather the inevitable rough patches. Because if it's not rough, then it's too obvious, and if it's too obvious, there's no real upside opportunity. You can plan for Chance III and prepare yourself for this. Chance IV is black swan. It is the rarest of conditions where an eccentric hobby results in significant upside. You can't plan for this, and if you do pursue an eccentric hobby you should do it out of pure personal interest rather than planning for a black swan upside opportunity. I have a feeling Marc Andreesen would consider himself to be Chance II or Chance III. And I question if his "luck" can truly be attributable to Chance II but rather his ability to "will" his fortune into being by virtue of being in Chance III.

ghaff 6y ago
And he really owes much of his fortune to Chance I. Right capabilities/decisions but right place/time.

swyx 6y ago

i've tried to quote this to friends before and struggled to remember it, so here's a simple 2 by 2: 1. Accidental Luck (General, Passive luck) - you have the luck of a plant - just lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time 2. Active Luck (General, Active luck) - you have luck from randomly moving around more 3. Prepared Luck (Individual, Passive luck) - you have luck because you've trained yourself to notice when luck happens to you 4. Magnetic Luck (Individual, Active luck) - you have luck because you work on interesting things and people seek you out (i drew it out here: https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck) I also like the way Naval put it: 1. Hope luck finds you. 2. Hustle until you stumble into it. 3. Prepare the mind and be sensitive to chances others miss. 4. Become the best at what you do. Refine what you do until this is true. Opportunity will seek you out. Luck becomes your destiny.