Consider the 2x2 matrix and the two types of error in it: * Optimistic think is correct in good environment * Optimistic think is wrong in bad environment *

Consider the 2x2 matrix and the two types of error in it: * Optimistic think is correct in good environment * Optimistic think is wrong in bad environment * Pessimistic think is correct in bad environment * Pessimistic think is wrong in good environment An optimistic thinker being wrong in a bad environment will result in inability to expect bad events. In our modern world, he will probably be robbed of his wealth. Since he thinks optimistically, he will keep trying and succeed to some extent. A pessimistic thinker being wrong in a good environment will chronically fail to take advantage of opportunities. While everybody else is fucking and getting rich, the pessimist is in paranoid survival mode afraid to do anything but hunker down for the worst, which never comes. Which error is WORSE is determined on average by how good or bad the world is. If you think the world is more good over time, the pessimist error is worse. If you think the world is more bad over time, the optimist error is worse. Your views might depend on where in the world exactly you live, but I consider the world to have vastly and measurably improved, forever and so far, since we began our existence on this rock billions of years ago. Therefore, I choose optimism. If I'm wrong and am robbed (which I've been!), it's still the correct play. Like when you play poker; you calculate the odds, make the play, and even if when the cards hit the table you see you could've won more with a different play, that doesn't matter, because you play the odds. The outcome of probability doesn't change the strategy!