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What’s your source? What geographic region are you counting as “Melbourne”, for example? If we’re talking just about Melbourne’s CBD (which might be a sensibl

by mewse 6y ago

What’s your source? What geographic region are you counting as “Melbourne”, for example? If we’re talking just about Melbourne’s CBD (which might be a sensible thing to do seeing as we’re talking about people being clustered in the cities and not about the surrounding suburbs, national parks, and rural areas which presumably are included in your “Melbourne” number), then the actual number for Melbourne is around 19,000 people/km2 [1], which is at least in the ballpark of the numbers you’ve given for other major cities. Although again, you don’t give enough details to know specifically what those numbers actually mean. [1]: https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/theres-a-reason-melbourne-feels-so-crowded-its-the-most-densely-populated-area-in-australia/news-story/8ccbaa220544ff3702164b57a35caf57 https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/theres-a-reas...

sto_hristo 6y ago
edited post with fix on New York and added sources We're talking about the cities as a whole, not selectively for this or that neighborhood, or that particular bus.
- deleted 6y ago
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bjowen 6y ago
What factors led to the effectiveness of the Melbourne lockdown? Choices are things like compliance, geography, particulars of the rules (8pm curfew, 5km movement radius), enough of a population that is able to work from home, enough economic support for those who couldn’t (job keeper etc) - to slow down population mixing and interrupt transmission chains. Contact tracing was overhauled midway through and that coincides with the turnaround [0,1]. Would those measures work in similarly-high-density cities? The awkward fact is that most of the cases in greater Melbourne were outside the densely-populated CBD [2], that much of the transmission occurred in lower-paid (McDonalds) and less-safe (meatpacking) workplaces, people whose home language was not English, as well as in shared living conditions. There’s a temptation to fit the data to the narrative you want, but (as far as I’m aware) the data you’d need to pick any one of these factors as conclusive hasn’t been released. Gestures in the direction of geography as the _one thing_ that enabled elimination are silly and ignore the vast amount of effort and personal sacrifice and organisation and argument and collaboration that went into that result. Lockdowns do work — even if that’s not quite the end of the story. [0] https://theconversation.com/where-did-victoria-go-so-wrong-with-contact-tracing-and-have-they-fixed-it-147993 https://theconversation.com/where-did-victoria-go-so-wrong-w... [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/victoria-coronavirus-contact-tracing-system-parliamentary-report/12980902 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/victoria-coronavirus-... [2] https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202101/NCOV_COVID_Cases_by_LGA_20210131.csv https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20...

by mewse 6y ago

sto_hristo 6y ago

edited post with fix on New York and added sources We're talking about the cities as a whole, not selectively for this or that neighborhood, or that particular bus.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

bjowen 6y ago

What factors led to the effectiveness of the Melbourne lockdown? Choices are things like compliance, geography, particulars of the rules (8pm curfew, 5km movement radius), enough of a population that is able to work from home, enough economic support for those who couldn’t (job keeper etc) - to slow down population mixing and interrupt transmission chains. Contact tracing was overhauled midway through and that coincides with the turnaround [0,1]. Would those measures work in similarly-high-density cities? The awkward fact is that most of the cases in greater Melbourne were outside the densely-populated CBD [2], that much of the transmission occurred in lower-paid (McDonalds) and less-safe (meatpacking) workplaces, people whose home language was not English, as well as in shared living conditions. There’s a temptation to fit the data to the narrative you want, but (as far as I’m aware) the data you’d need to pick any one of these factors as conclusive hasn’t been released. Gestures in the direction of geography as the _one thing_ that enabled elimination are silly and ignore the vast amount of effort and personal sacrifice and organisation and argument and collaboration that went into that result. Lockdowns do work — even if that’s not quite the end of the story. [0] https://theconversation.com/where-did-victoria-go-so-wrong-with-contact-tracing-and-have-they-fixed-it-147993 https://theconversation.com/where-did-victoria-go-so-wrong-w... [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/victoria-coronavirus-contact-tracing-system-parliamentary-report/12980902 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/victoria-coronavirus-... [2] https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202101/NCOV_COVID_Cases_by_LGA_20210131.csv https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20...