3 ms·

You miss the point - a virus with a 1% death rate of those infected, that mutates into a virus 50% more transmissible, with a 1% death rate of those infected,

You miss the point - a virus with a 1% death rate of those infected, that mutates into a virus 50% more transmissible, with a 1% death rate of those infected, is obviously likely to kill more people.

jansan 6y ago
If I look a the infection numbers of South Africa and UK, I completely fail to see how there variants are more infectious. Also, in Brazil, where life seems to go on as usual, there is no exponential growth of cases. Do you have any numbers that prove that the new strains are actually spreading faster in society?
- res0nat0r 6y ago
  https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/fauci-uk-coronavirus-462117 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/fauci-uk-coronaviru... The UK variant which will be the dominant strain in the USA in a couple months is more deadly, and I believe the same is true for the South Africa version. Both more infectious, and both more lethal.
  - jansan 6y ago
    >The UK variant which will be the dominant strain in the USA in a couple months is more deadly, That's not what is in the article. It says "“there is a realistic possibility that infection with” the country’s dominant Covid-19 variant “is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with” other strains of the coronavirus." What they are saying is basically "we do not know".
- T-A 6y ago
  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
herewegoagain2 6y ago
No that is not obvious at all. It doesn't depend on the transmission rate, just on how many people get infected. Higher transmission rate just means it spreads faster, not that it infects more people in the end.