4 ms·

This and all other countries mentioned are Islands (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan)

by baxtr 6y ago

josephg 6y ago
Just because she's not an island, Canada can still close her borders. I'm sure it'll be inconvenient, but short and sharp beats long and drawn out.
- baxtr 6y ago
  Yes I agree. Canada has a long border but just with one country. So think it’s in a good position. It’s way more difficult for a European country for example.
  - threeseed 6y ago
    It's not that difficult for most European countries. People are going to be crossing borders at relatively few and well understood locations. And they could've simply imposed large fines for anyone who tried to sneak through.
    - baxtr 6y ago
      You obviously don’t live in mainland Europe. I can easily cross borders in a small village, on a field, through a forest. There are no fences. Sometimes you don’t even have a line. It’s a bit like saying New York should close its borders with Pennsylvania
- icelancer 6y ago
  >> Canada can still close her borders This was already done and the infection rates are still sky high.
  - josephg 6y ago
    With closed borders, Canada is basically an island like Australia, NZ and the UK. Lots of posters here seem convinced that being an island makes it easy to control covid. If thats the most important factor, I'd love to hear some theories on why the numbers in canada aren't coming down to 0, like they have in Australia and NZ?
    - Ekaros 6y ago
      Key detail here is likely that it should have been done early enough. Once the virus is inside it is very hard to contain. Specially when asymptomatic carrier are common. Chain of them can keep virus alive and spreading for weeks or months.
      - josephg 6y ago
        Yeah its much easier to do before the numbers spike. Some analysis I heard recently said if you do a lockdown, delaying by 1 day at the outset leads to locking down a whole extra week at the other end. The numbers are coming down (slowly) in Montreal now that they have a strict lockdown. I think the process could work; but at this point it might take so long to get the numbers under control that people wouldn't tolerate it. Especially not when the vaccine feels so close. We'd be talking like, 4 months in a row of strict lockdown + business closures. The other aspect is contact tracing. When numbers are very low, its much easier to do diligent contact tracing around every infected person. In the recent outbreak in Sydney they tracked down and personally contacted everyone they could place in the vicinity of an infected person and asked them to self isolate. By the time a handful of those people tested positive, most of them had already been isolating and as a result didn't infect anyone - which broke the chain of transmission. We could do that because the number of new cases was only around ~10/day. That would be way less feasible at Montreal's 1600 cases/day.
threeseed 6y ago
UK is an island and is the worst country in the world per-capita. Australia, New Zealand etc chose to implement mandatory 2-week quarantining of all arrivals. UK did not. There is no evidence that being an island or not makes a difference. But plenty of evidence that an aggressive, science-driven policy response does.
- baxtr 6y ago
  Yes, agreed. It’s embarrassing for the UK... my point was that there is no example of a western, liberal country not being an island that was able to reach zero Covid. It’s just way easier as an island state.
  - gridspy 6y ago
    New Zealand is about as large as Europe. Larger than the UK. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/08/map-how-nz-and-europe-compare-when-it-comes-to-land-mass.html https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/08/map-how-n...
    - baxtr 6y ago
      With no borders to other countries
    - KineticLensman 6y ago
      But not a major transit hub, miles from anywhere, low density population
      - gridspy 6y ago
        Being a transit hub is irrelevant if the people in transit do not mix with those out of transit. Keep the (potentially) sick people on the "air side" of the airport terminal and then directly into quarantines on arrive at the final destination. Those who bridge this gap (air crews, terminal staff) need to follow very strict measures (PPE, cleaning, regular testing) to make that work. Perhaps more places need to decide they don't want to be a major transit hub during this pandemic? You know, restrict non-essential traffic a bit to make the essential traffic and local populace safer?

This and all other countries mentioned are Islands (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan)

by baxtr 6y ago

This and all other countries mentioned are Islands (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan)

Just because she's not an island, Canada can still close her borders. I'm sure it'll be inconvenient, but short and sharp beats long and drawn out.

baxtr 6y ago
Yes I agree. Canada has a long border but just with one country. So think it’s in a good position. It’s way more difficult for a European country for example.
- threeseed 6y ago
  It's not that difficult for most European countries. People are going to be crossing borders at relatively few and well understood locations. And they could've simply imposed large fines for anyone who tried to sneak through.
  - baxtr 6y ago
    You obviously don’t live in mainland Europe. I can easily cross borders in a small village, on a field, through a forest. There are no fences. Sometimes you don’t even have a line. It’s a bit like saying New York should close its borders with Pennsylvania
icelancer 6y ago
>> Canada can still close her borders This was already done and the infection rates are still sky high.
- josephg 6y ago
  With closed borders, Canada is basically an island like Australia, NZ and the UK. Lots of posters here seem convinced that being an island makes it easy to control covid. If thats the most important factor, I'd love to hear some theories on why the numbers in canada aren't coming down to 0, like they have in Australia and NZ?
  - Ekaros 6y ago
    Key detail here is likely that it should have been done early enough. Once the virus is inside it is very hard to contain. Specially when asymptomatic carrier are common. Chain of them can keep virus alive and spreading for weeks or months.
    - josephg 6y ago
      Yeah its much easier to do before the numbers spike. Some analysis I heard recently said if you do a lockdown, delaying by 1 day at the outset leads to locking down a whole extra week at the other end. The numbers are coming down (slowly) in Montreal now that they have a strict lockdown. I think the process could work; but at this point it might take so long to get the numbers under control that people wouldn't tolerate it. Especially not when the vaccine feels so close. We'd be talking like, 4 months in a row of strict lockdown + business closures. The other aspect is contact tracing. When numbers are very low, its much easier to do diligent contact tracing around every infected person. In the recent outbreak in Sydney they tracked down and personally contacted everyone they could place in the vicinity of an infected person and asked them to self isolate. By the time a handful of those people tested positive, most of them had already been isolating and as a result didn't infect anyone - which broke the chain of transmission. We could do that because the number of new cases was only around ~10/day. That would be way less feasible at Montreal's 1600 cases/day.

threeseed 6y ago

UK is an island and is the worst country in the world per-capita. Australia, New Zealand etc chose to implement mandatory 2-week quarantining of all arrivals. UK did not. There is no evidence that being an island or not makes a difference. But plenty of evidence that an aggressive, science-driven policy response does.

baxtr 6y ago
Yes, agreed. It’s embarrassing for the UK... my point was that there is no example of a western, liberal country not being an island that was able to reach zero Covid. It’s just way easier as an island state.
- gridspy 6y ago
  New Zealand is about as large as Europe. Larger than the UK. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/08/map-how-nz-and-europe-compare-when-it-comes-to-land-mass.html https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/08/map-how-n...
  - baxtr 6y ago
    With no borders to other countries
  - KineticLensman 6y ago
    But not a major transit hub, miles from anywhere, low density population
    - gridspy 6y ago
      Being a transit hub is irrelevant if the people in transit do not mix with those out of transit. Keep the (potentially) sick people on the "air side" of the airport terminal and then directly into quarantines on arrive at the final destination. Those who bridge this gap (air crews, terminal staff) need to follow very strict measures (PPE, cleaning, regular testing) to make that work. Perhaps more places need to decide they don't want to be a major transit hub during this pandemic? You know, restrict non-essential traffic a bit to make the essential traffic and local populace safer?