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The main thrust of thesis seems to be that emerging countries with improving human capita and large internal markets will probably emulate Chinese tech sovereig
by dirtyid 6y ago
The main thrust of thesis seems to be that emerging countries with improving human capita and large internal markets will probably emulate Chinese tech sovereignty model and debundle from US tech dominance. SV controlling global data is increasingly untenable, even less so with recent developments.
Also Chinese demographic crisis overplayed IMO, China is not Japan. Consider China as two countries segregated by massive income disparity, one is high HDI coastal country that forms a bloc that can compete with other big players like US / EU on PPP basis (with gap that is only widening), another is low HDI interior underclass comparable to poor developing country. The competitive country is drawing talent from total population pool comparable to OECD countries combined with sufficient replacement fertility to match countries with massive immigration flow. This disparity can be arbitraged in ways high income countries like Japan, US/west can't.
In terms of demographic bomb, 10% of Chinese GDP can essentially keep the bottom 50% of society running with boost in QoL. Or put it this way, 10% of US GDP is 80% of India's GDP. The Chinese demographic crisis is a manageable internal "foreign" aid / redistribution program between rich and poor. But unlike wealthy countries, the have nots do not have same expectations, they're less costly to please and simultaneously a massive source of cheap labour rich countries must import to manage aging societies, which China can also "outsource" to cheaply coordinate other sectors, i.e. infrastructure, military, healthcare. IMO rich countries with expectation of comprehensive safety nets is going to have a much more difficult time dealing with aging than China. There's a reason large segments of wealthy countries are disenfranchised and protesting even though they are and will remain significant richer per capita than China. Apart from CCP just having more tools at stability maintenance, it's basic psychology, a poor Chinese citizen life will improve compared to prior generations whereas a rich OECD citizen will not.