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> Unless China solves for the skewed demographics in the next ten years, seems like sheep-behavior to include them in projections for the future. True, long te

> Unless China solves for the skewed demographics in the next ten years, seems like sheep-behavior to include them in projections for the future. True, long term, China has sealed its future, but even if you half China's population, it will still be no. 1 in pretty much everything it is no. 1 today. Pretty much nothing aside of war, civil war, or a second cultural revolution scale political crisis can stop it overtaking USA economically in coming 1-2 decades.

pbourke 6y ago
I’m genuinely curious why this comment is receiving downvotes. China becoming the world’s economic power by mid-century has been my set assumption for years. Has something changed with this expectation?
- edoceo 6y ago
  China population is 1398 Million, india is like 1366. China in half would be 700 million. Maybe it just don't add up? IME this site downvotes bad maths.
  - bigpumpkin 6y ago
    This. China may have more factories but its focus is on industry not spirituality. India will achieve Religious Victory by 2050.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - labster 6y ago
      Either that or Ghandi will nuke us all.
jonathannat 6y ago
Plenty of black swans occur when dictatorship is the regime. - assassination of dictator => internal turmoil - early death of dictator => internal turmoil - scuffle with neighboring country => economic sanctions by the free world - dictator can't lose face, does something stupid => economic sanctions by the free world - (Germany, Merkel, CDU) support for the dictator wanes and disappears => economic sanctions by the free world - local governments cover up economic losses until its too great => hyperinflation, central government collapse - triggering business defaults leading to dollar shortages leading to faster capital outflow => hyperinflation, central government collapse - made up economic numbers are exposed => foreign businesses pull out - nationalization of foreign companies assets => foreign businesses pull out - natural disasters + lack of food supply => citizen riot
- oblio 6y ago
  Many of those things apply to democracies, too, unfortunately.

pbourke 6y ago

I’m genuinely curious why this comment is receiving downvotes. China becoming the world’s economic power by mid-century has been my set assumption for years. Has something changed with this expectation?

edoceo 6y ago
China population is 1398 Million, india is like 1366. China in half would be 700 million. Maybe it just don't add up? IME this site downvotes bad maths.
- bigpumpkin 6y ago
  This. China may have more factories but its focus is on industry not spirituality. India will achieve Religious Victory by 2050.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - labster 6y ago
    Either that or Ghandi will nuke us all.

jonathannat 6y ago

Plenty of black swans occur when dictatorship is the regime. - assassination of dictator => internal turmoil - early death of dictator => internal turmoil - scuffle with neighboring country => economic sanctions by the free world - dictator can't lose face, does something stupid => economic sanctions by the free world - (Germany, Merkel, CDU) support for the dictator wanes and disappears => economic sanctions by the free world - local governments cover up economic losses until its too great => hyperinflation, central government collapse - triggering business defaults leading to dollar shortages leading to faster capital outflow => hyperinflation, central government collapse - made up economic numbers are exposed => foreign businesses pull out - nationalization of foreign companies assets => foreign businesses pull out - natural disasters + lack of food supply => citizen riot

oblio 6y ago
Many of those things apply to democracies, too, unfortunately.