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There is also the vicious version: Mandating the wearing of helmets for cyclists increases the number of deaths, because of obesity and cardiac diseases due to

There is also the vicious version: Mandating the wearing of helmets for cyclists increases the number of deaths, because of obesity and cardiac diseases due to raising the barrier to cycling.

Ma8ee 6y ago
I've heard that example many times over the years, but I very much suspect it's and urban myth. Do you know if there really are any serious studies showing this?
- the-dude 6y ago
  You don't need an urban myth when you already have statistics.
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    Let me rephrase my question: are there reliable statistics that shows that that is the case?
- laurent92 6y ago
  I’ve personally read it from the book Freakinomics, here is the article pointing to one scientific paper. But it could still be false, you are correct: From my experience, a scientific paper isn’t trustworthy until another paper comes and shows which limits it has. https://freakonomics.com/2010/01/19/do-bike-helmet-laws-discourage-bicycling/ https://freakonomics.com/2010/01/19/do-bike-helmet-laws-disc...
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    Thanks for the link. But that only shows that mandatory helmets reduce bicycling a few percent. The leap that it actually increases mortality is still missing.
    - njarboe 6y ago
      Mandatory helmets reduce fun and freedom. Laws should not be passed for marginal improvements in safety or small reduction of public costs, in my opinion.
    - username90 6y ago
      This paper says it increases mortality for that reason: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1368064 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1368064
    - bostik 6y ago
      Think about it this way: if you choose to wear a helmet, you already have done a personal risk evaluation. You are also, with a high probability, an avid cyclist. You are more likely to invest in quality equipment. On the other hand, if you are getting a helmet because you have to but don't really want to, your selection criteria will be different. You are less likely to invest in quality equipment. The problem with dodgy headgear is that a badly fitting helmet will not feel right, or align well with your head movements. This in turn means such a helmet is a source of low-grade irritation and distraction - and due to bad fit, may actually limit your field of vision when you turn your head around. The latter clearly increases the wearer's risk. Hence, a cyclist who wears a helmet only because it's mandatory is (sadly enough) more likely to get into dangerous accidents. They are unable to give their surroundings their full attention, and may also be suffering from ill effects of their chosen gear. Net effect? More dangerous situations, with smaller safety margins between the cyclist and their surroundings. Full disclosure: I prefer to wear a good, lightweight helmet that fits snugly and doesn't accidentally impair my vision. I have also experienced badly fitting helmets and consider them hazardous. This is the reason why I am against mandatory cycling helmets - regulation can not guarantee ergonomics, so with mandatory helmets the truth is that more people will be in the traffic with headgear that will make them less safe to themselves, as well as everyone around them.
      - Ma8ee 6y ago
        It’s not hard to make up stories that sound plausible. That doesn’t make them true.
- m463 6y ago
  There was a TED talk about this, don't know about papers. https://youtu.be/07o-TASvIxY https://youtu.be/07o-TASvIxY
- midasuni 6y ago
  There were studies showing that mandatory helmet laws coincide with reduced cycling, and more cycling coincides with fewer deaths https://theconversation.com/ditching-bike-helmets-laws-better-for-health-42 https://theconversation.com/ditching-bike-helmets-laws-bette... Has references to many papers
tradri 6y ago
another relevant one: lockdowns cause more deaths because people don't have a job and are depressed. Edit: According to Elon Musk and others.
- midasuni 6y ago
  No doubt, but they also cause fewer deaths from reducing healthcare overload.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    My question would then be, what is the natural life expectancy of a suicide or opiate overdose victim, versus that of a person that would have survived COVID only with medical intervention. We should be looking at deferral of death, not just death count. Death is certain to everyone and I am reluctant to value everyone’s remaining life expectancy equally, at least as far as the healthcare system is concerned.
    - midasuni 6y ago
      In the U.K. there’s no evidence of any change in suicide rates in 2020 (it’s normally about 6,000 a year). Registration delays means that we don’t know the numbers for 2020, but early indications are not much change (suicide has been increasing though and is at a record high) A much bigger issue is the lost of QALYs from lockdown but not from deaths, including the socio-economic impacts. ONS have a more through report than a Sunday morning post from a phone. https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/estimatingtheimpactsofcoronavirusonenglandsmortalityandmorbidity https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/estimatingt... The people who mainly benefitted from lockdown measures are the over 60s The people who mainly lost out were the under 35s The recovery plan needs to address this - including fixing the massive wealth disparity. A generation of property owning shareholders who have retired have seen their wealth and income balloon over the last year (and decade). But it won’t, millennials will be screwed.
    - Shaanie 6y ago
      Life years gained is the measure you're talking about, and that's definitely a good measure to take into consideration.

There is also the vicious version: Mandating the wearing of helmets for cyclists increases the number of deaths, because of obesity and cardiac diseases due to raising the barrier to cycling.

Ma8ee 6y ago

I've heard that example many times over the years, but I very much suspect it's and urban myth. Do you know if there really are any serious studies showing this?

the-dude 6y ago
You don't need an urban myth when you already have statistics.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  Let me rephrase my question: are there reliable statistics that shows that that is the case?
laurent92 6y ago
I’ve personally read it from the book Freakinomics, here is the article pointing to one scientific paper. But it could still be false, you are correct: From my experience, a scientific paper isn’t trustworthy until another paper comes and shows which limits it has. https://freakonomics.com/2010/01/19/do-bike-helmet-laws-discourage-bicycling/ https://freakonomics.com/2010/01/19/do-bike-helmet-laws-disc...
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  Thanks for the link. But that only shows that mandatory helmets reduce bicycling a few percent. The leap that it actually increases mortality is still missing.
  - njarboe 6y ago
    Mandatory helmets reduce fun and freedom. Laws should not be passed for marginal improvements in safety or small reduction of public costs, in my opinion.
  - username90 6y ago
    This paper says it increases mortality for that reason: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1368064 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1368064
  - bostik 6y ago
    Think about it this way: if you choose to wear a helmet, you already have done a personal risk evaluation. You are also, with a high probability, an avid cyclist. You are more likely to invest in quality equipment. On the other hand, if you are getting a helmet because you have to but don't really want to, your selection criteria will be different. You are less likely to invest in quality equipment. The problem with dodgy headgear is that a badly fitting helmet will not feel right, or align well with your head movements. This in turn means such a helmet is a source of low-grade irritation and distraction - and due to bad fit, may actually limit your field of vision when you turn your head around. The latter clearly increases the wearer's risk. Hence, a cyclist who wears a helmet only because it's mandatory is (sadly enough) more likely to get into dangerous accidents. They are unable to give their surroundings their full attention, and may also be suffering from ill effects of their chosen gear. Net effect? More dangerous situations, with smaller safety margins between the cyclist and their surroundings. Full disclosure: I prefer to wear a good, lightweight helmet that fits snugly and doesn't accidentally impair my vision. I have also experienced badly fitting helmets and consider them hazardous. This is the reason why I am against mandatory cycling helmets - regulation can not guarantee ergonomics, so with mandatory helmets the truth is that more people will be in the traffic with headgear that will make them less safe to themselves, as well as everyone around them.
    - Ma8ee 6y ago
      It’s not hard to make up stories that sound plausible. That doesn’t make them true.
m463 6y ago
There was a TED talk about this, don't know about papers. https://youtu.be/07o-TASvIxY https://youtu.be/07o-TASvIxY
midasuni 6y ago
There were studies showing that mandatory helmet laws coincide with reduced cycling, and more cycling coincides with fewer deaths https://theconversation.com/ditching-bike-helmets-laws-better-for-health-42 https://theconversation.com/ditching-bike-helmets-laws-bette... Has references to many papers

tradri 6y ago

another relevant one: lockdowns cause more deaths because people don't have a job and are depressed. Edit: According to Elon Musk and others.

midasuni 6y ago
No doubt, but they also cause fewer deaths from reducing healthcare overload.
- incrudible 6y ago
  My question would then be, what is the natural life expectancy of a suicide or opiate overdose victim, versus that of a person that would have survived COVID only with medical intervention. We should be looking at deferral of death, not just death count. Death is certain to everyone and I am reluctant to value everyone’s remaining life expectancy equally, at least as far as the healthcare system is concerned.
  - midasuni 6y ago
    In the U.K. there’s no evidence of any change in suicide rates in 2020 (it’s normally about 6,000 a year). Registration delays means that we don’t know the numbers for 2020, but early indications are not much change (suicide has been increasing though and is at a record high) A much bigger issue is the lost of QALYs from lockdown but not from deaths, including the socio-economic impacts. ONS have a more through report than a Sunday morning post from a phone. https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/estimatingtheimpactsofcoronavirusonenglandsmortalityandmorbidity https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/estimatingt... The people who mainly benefitted from lockdown measures are the over 60s The people who mainly lost out were the under 35s The recovery plan needs to address this - including fixing the massive wealth disparity. A generation of property owning shareholders who have retired have seen their wealth and income balloon over the last year (and decade). But it won’t, millennials will be screwed.
  - Shaanie 6y ago
    Life years gained is the measure you're talking about, and that's definitely a good measure to take into consideration.