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Yes. The thing about gasoline that people aren't thinking about is that - refining the fuel and getting it to where you can physically buy it, and - the comp
by JulianMorrison 6y ago
Yes.
The thing about gasoline that people aren't thinking about is that
- refining the fuel and getting it to where you can physically buy it, and
- the complicated engine gubbins inside (compared to much simpler battery EVs),
...are both long logistical tails that absolutely depend on volume of custom to make their current form affordable, by hiding the large fixed costs of infrastructure.
Which means that there will be a crossover point some time in the next 30 years, and probably earlier than you'd think, when running a gasoline fuel station, a gasoline refinery, making the complicated parts, and training to install them, will no longer be commercially viable as anything other than a private hobby (like running a 1920s car, you can do it, but YOU are going to have to do all of it, there is no 1920s car mechanic in the phone book).
At this crossover point the value of a gasoline car will be either
- its value as a basis for a BEV conversion kit, probably not a whole lot as they'll be expensive and poorly suited, or
- it's value as scrap parts.
Sorry.