18 ms·

How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

353 points by deadcoder0904 6y ago

brudgers 6y ago
A theory that only works for people who are lucky enough to be surrounded by supportive people. Some people have the misfortune to know people whose usual reaction is throwing sand in other people's gears. People who crap on other people's plans. Just as good luck can compound, so can bad luck.
- umvi 6y ago
  > A theory that only works for people who are lucky enough to be surrounded by supportive people. It's possible to change who surrounds you. By socializing in new bubbles, making new friends, or just plain moving to a new location.
  - Shared404 6y ago
    With enough bad luck, it's possibly to never have the opportunity to make those changes.
    - doctorhandshake 6y ago
      That’s what the internet is for!
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - TheCowboy 6y ago
    This is also possible, but it's also something where luck, personal resources, and experience play a role in determining how successful such changes will be.
  - brudgers 6y ago
    Whether or not that works is a matter of luck. Part of that luck is the recognition that the people close are unsupportive and knowledge that there are supportive people. If someone has had the bad luck of growing up surrounded by unsupportive people, the recognition and knowledge don't occur naturally. The problem of long term socialization with assholes is that a person tends to be socialized to being an asshole. That facilitates new friendships with new assholes more than it facilitates new friendships with non-assholes. It facilitates socializing in asshole rich bubbles...etc.
- mish33 6y ago
  Bad luck may follow the same formula: what you did wrong times how many people that affected.
pototo666 6y ago
I like this idea. It's simple and elegant. I am accidentally practising it. I make games. I tried and failed to get investement and partners. So I am making games alone. Last week I started streaming my daily work. I stream my the other screen display, such that I can decide what to show and what to hide. I told myself, streaming cost me no money and I might attract attention of partners and investors. Nothing unfold yet. But I would continue.
- _jjkk 6y ago
  I have seen multiple indie developers successfully begin marketing on their unfinished / unremarkable prototype far in advance. In fact some of them get so popular they pivot into "I make videos of myself making games" instead of "I make games" I would recommend doubling up exposure by recording your streams, then cutting up the best clips and releasing them as Youtube videos. Also posting these Youtube videos to Reddit when possible (obviously following their self-promotion rules) Here is an example channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEhOhNgoZHI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEhOhNgoZHI
  - pototo666 6y ago
    Recoding stream is a good idea! Thanks for this concrete advice and example :))
williamonill 6y ago
I think this equation completely forgets to take into account the power of the people you tell about your ideas. If you are studying in Stanford and can literally walk into the office of professor X and tell him about your ideas (which worked pretty well for Elizabeth Holmes and professor Channing Robertson but that's a different story) you have an enormous competitive advantage. And if you have a Stanford professor on your side, it's pretty easy to open doors to other influential people. On the other hand, if you tell your idea some stranger on the Internet... chances are much lower that you will find the right people.
sigmaprimus 6y ago
I'm not sure the variable of how many other people I tell about my passion has an effect of its success. I have several passions and many ventures based on them. I believe "A farmer has as much luck as he has seeds in the ground" regardless of how many people are involved. I my case "seeds" are ventures that I start based on my passions, many will wither but some will do well and a few do great. The great ones seem to draw others to get involved even when I try to keep them low key.
sh490 6y ago
By increasing the size of your exposure. Ideally, diversifying exposure to opportunities/people/circles/etc. This should be done concurrently with (if not as a result of) increasing quality and amount of your output. By the time you meet the 'right' person, are in the 'right circle', you'll have something to show. Otherwise, it's wasted opportunity, and hence wasted luck.
- hntrader 6y ago
  That's what the article says: Luck = Doing * Telling
KineticLensman 6y ago
I'll stick with the proverbial Seneca: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Which is actually a generalization of the author's (relatively narrow) thesis where 'opportunity' depends primarily on the people that you meet and the 'preparation' is being passionate about something.
- Closi 6y ago
  I think this is roughly the same thesis with different words - preparation = doing and telling = creating opportunities.
  - dade_ 6y ago
    Except Seneca said this 2000 years ago and used far fewer words than this blog post.
- king_magic 6y ago
  A previous manager of mine told me that same quote years ago. It’s never left me, and has always been a valuable way to look at the world.
- emrah 6y ago
  That's a nice quote but I wonder if something was lost in translation. "Preparation" seems too "point-in-time", like you do X, Y, Z and you are ready.. which doesn't seem right. Opportunities in life are moving targets, there is no way to be "prepared" at any point in time. I think a better way to say this would be "Luck is what happens when momentum meets opportunity". So you are engaged with something (like running a SaaS company), something happens (like one of your large competitors goes out of business) and your activities up to that point put you in a spot that makes it possible to benefit from that event.
colanderman 6y ago
(2010). There's since been much discussion of this post here, and generalization to other aspects of life. E.g. I remember the example, if your goal is to date a model, start hanging out in places (cafes/bars) where models hang out.
choxi 6y ago
Product-market fit often has an element of luck, otherwise someone else would have found the opportunity already. So this is really good advice for anyone working on a startup, it's sort of another way of saying the classic YC advice that you should be "building things and talking to customers". I really like this mental model, one thing I've noticed about my failed startup attempts is that I did a lot of "doing" but not "telling".
- Closi 6y ago
  I think that’s a slightly different thesis - I think this one is more about ‘lucky breaks’ I.e. Microsoft selling its first basic compiler, vs finding your product market fit.
kharak 6y ago
Being passionate about something for a long time (not just a couple of hours or weeks) seems to be a rare quality. Too bad for those who lack it, as it seems to be a requirement for success in everything. There are so many posts that try to tell you how to get the most out of your passion, I haven't seen one that explains the origin of passion or whether it is possible to become passionate.
- analyst74 6y ago
  Opposite of passion is contentment, which is also very desirable for many. You just can't have both, because with a burning passion, comes a sense of imperfection and constant struggle to get better but never enough, or worse, fear of decay and irrelevance, an inevitable outcome as one ages.
  - nicbou 6y ago
    You can be passionate and content. There are plenty of passionate artists, athletes and engineers who don't care about going pro, getting famous or changing the world. For example, I'm passionate about software development, but I make simple things that don't matter. I'm passionate about cooking, but only for myself and the occasional guest. I'm also passionate about the website I live from, but I don't worry much about its growth. I like to build stuff, but I don't want an audience or its recognition. I don't want users nor money. I just do it because it's nice.
    - Judgmentality 6y ago
      I think this is just a simple semantics distinction. I believe what you mean by passion is interest, and what OP means by passion is drive. I think you're discussing slightly different things. I don't believe it is possible to be driven and satisfied at the same time. But I believe it is possible to be interested and content simultaneously.
      - nicbou 6y ago
        But I am driven. I wake up in the morning, make coffee and code all day, for fun. I go to special grocers to find the right ingredients. I'm just not driven by the desire to be successful. I'm content with home-cooked meals and their software equivalent.
hwestiii 6y ago
Louis Pasteur figured this out in the 19th century. “Chance favors the prepared mind.”
mrandish 6y ago
The concept in the post is something I've observed in my own life and the lives of others. The article highlights that it's just not "doing" but doing something you are "passionate" about. I get a little stuck on that word because it evokes the "follow your passions" type of advice which can be taken the wrong way. Here I think the key is it's not just "doing" anything but rather something you care enough about to at least try to do well. In other words, you're putting attention and energy into it. This tends to be something others notice because it's authentic. The other thing which seems to elevate outcomes in this context is not just "telling" people as measured by quantity but also by quality. Just sharing with large numbers of people may work but trying to share with those who also "do" things will reach those most likely to care about what you're doing, the way you're doing it or even just that you're "doing" things with genuine personal investment. When I see that, it usually stands out and I'm much more likely to want to engage with that person.
Invictus0 6y ago
There is no such thing as being lucky. It is just a matter of perspective. Luck is what happens when people spontaneously feel grateful.
- OgAstorga 6y ago
  Isn't a good hand in Texa's considered luck? Isn't being invited by M. Zuckerberg to help code a side project named thefacebook considered luck (whether or not you've accepted)?
  - Invictus0 6y ago
    These are just circumstances that present themselves to you. They are no more or less lucky than waking up in the morning, seeing the sun shine, or having clean water to drink. It's a matter of perspective.
- freshpots 6y ago
  Check this out, your opinion may change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I (12:03)
  - adnzzzzZ 6y ago
    Check this out, your opinion may change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw (54:01)
    - ruang 6y ago
      I like Peter Thiel's quote: A-B testing only works if you have a billion years (from Darwin)
- alfiedotwtf 6y ago
  I think from your comment, you didn't the article
yalogin 6y ago
This is only tangentially related to the article. I keep hearing a lot of “put effort into what you are passionate about”. One thing I found is passion is also generated. It happened to be many times, I force myself to work and n something for some time and I automatically see the beauty/challenge in it and develop the motivation without the need to push. I want to hear other’s opinions on it.
xyzelement 6y ago
An Israeli entrepreneur once introduced me to the idea of "the adjacent possible" - meaning, as you progress to "the next point" - the possibilities connected to that point are available to you. Somewhere else, I read the definition of "intelligence" as that which maximizes its future options. I think both things hit at the same idea of "surface area of luck". We think of luck as "a good opportunity you can take advantage of" - if you become someone who can take advantage of more opportunities, you become luckier. Some of the strategies that helped me (none of them are intentional): - Never passing up an opportunity to learn - whether new skill or new degree or new industry or a new personal challenge. As Steve Jobs said, sometimes you don't learn until later how the dots connect to what you eventually do. - Diversifying my experience. EG: 13~ years ago I was a "senior software developer." Since then, I had been a "development manager", a "product manager" and also for a time a "senior software developer" again. When I lost my job a few months ago, I was able to look at opportunities along all 3 of these job tracks, whereas if I had stayed in the single track, I'd have 1/3 the options. - Ditto to industries. Until now, everything I did was in finance, so I intentionally found a role outside of finance, because I could always go back to it if I need to, but now I am proving to myself (and to my resume) that I can cross industries and work anywhere. That again increases. your surface area. - Have a diverse network, for example find a way to connect with young talented people where you are (first job, university) because they will disperse throughout the world and may do cool things and you may want to do those things with them, or they can just help you. It has been amazing how much people that I had barely connected with when we worked together were willing to help when I needed a referral/advice/whatever. - I'll call this one out separately: help people. Make time to mentor people, help them get jobs, put in a good word, whatever. Not everyone will "pay you back" but it doesn't matter, the reputation of "xyzelement's a good guy, he's generally helpful" means the world, especially as you become more senior. - Be the dumbest guy in the room. You grow more when being surrounded by those who can challenge you uncomfortably. Pick the right room. Comfort = death. - Troubleshoot your mind. Most of us are held back by stupid hangups. For example, most developers I know could be overall way more successful if they got over shyness/fear of public speaking. Figure out why you fear whatever you fear, and work to get over it. Imagine you didn't go for your dream job because it has some minute attribute that you pointlessly fear. - Check your language. If you find that "they" are responsible for what's happening to you, you have given away all your power. Figure out how "you" are responsible for where you and and what opportunities "you" have, and then own it and act.
binbag 6y ago
Do things you're keen on? Deep.
motohagiography 6y ago
Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of any kind, you naturally orient to getting exposure to opportunity for diversified parts of it, but when you have a scarcity view, your decisions are necessarily all/nothing, and it even becomes a class culture thing. It's circumstances, but also learned attitude. Related, I'm sympathetic to what's happening with GME and WSB, if a young persons net worth is four digits, it seems insane not to gamble it on options, as the housing bubble has cut off the last way for working people to get leverage. GME may mark the inflection point in the markets where young people realize it's their best or even only opportunity for leverage, and meme stocks are going to be the new normal because the economy doesn't provide anything better to invest in for under $50k. (that is, unless remote work makes distant property viable to live in)
- Nevermark 6y ago
  I hate to say “Bitcoin” because of its high risk, short track record, volatility, faddish aura, etc, but: I believe it’s filling a gap beyond being a better gold-like asset. Better gold = digitally portable, 24 hr liquidity, digital literate friendly, fixed cap, transactions (even with its limits), decentralized control, etc. But the solidly fixed cap is more profound than I think most people recognize. Potentially, once Bitcoin finds its “true” price, it will continue to grow in value in proportion to all wealth in the economy - over the long run. So it won’t just be a hedge against downturns, but eventually a semi-stable way of sharing in overall increasing wealth in the economy. I don’t know of another instrument that anyone can easily buy that might track (over the long run) with global wealth as apposed to particular entities or particular aspects of the economy. So in that sense, anyone can participate in overall wealth growth. A very useful new tool! OF COURSE, this is SPECULATION on my part. But I think the idea of a total global wealth correlated asset is new and useful.
  - dehrmann 6y ago
the-dude 6y ago
I practice this in billiards/carambole ( 3 balls, no pockets ). I try to avoid 'perpendicular' approaches, instead opting for shots with big angles, even if they are technically more difficult. This literally translates into a larger area where I have the chance to touch the 3rd ball.
pontifier 6y ago
This puts the onus on others. In my opinion the biggest contributors to luck are observation i.e. the ability to see opportunity, and willingness to execute on the opportunities you see.
freshpots 6y ago
This is an excellent video from Veritasium that discusses luck as a factor of success: https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I
carrozo 6y ago
I’ve had this old post from Marc Andreessen pinned in my mental browser for a long time now. There are four types of luck and you can influence three of them: Chance I is completely impersonal; you can't influence it. Chance II favors those who have a persistent curiosity about many things coupled with an energetic willingness to experiment and explore. Chance III favors those who have a sufficient background of sound knowledge plus special abilities in observing, remembering, recalling, and quickly forming significant new associations. Chance IV favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors. https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html
- rexreed 6y ago
  Of all those kinds of chance, the kind that you can really prepare for is really only Chance-type III. Chance I is truly deus-ex-machina stuff you can't foresee nor plan for. Chance II encourages randomness and serendipity, but those who lack the ability of discernment and proper focus risk being ADHD never focusing enough on anything to capture any opportunity, should it even emerge. Chance III rewards those who have deepened their knowledge and have stubborn persistence to weather the inevitable rough patches. Because if it's not rough, then it's too obvious, and if it's too obvious, there's no real upside opportunity. You can plan for Chance III and prepare yourself for this. Chance IV is black swan. It is the rarest of conditions where an eccentric hobby results in significant upside. You can't plan for this, and if you do pursue an eccentric hobby you should do it out of pure personal interest rather than planning for a black swan upside opportunity. I have a feeling Marc Andreesen would consider himself to be Chance II or Chance III. And I question if his "luck" can truly be attributable to Chance II but rather his ability to "will" his fortune into being by virtue of being in Chance III.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    And he really owes much of his fortune to Chance I. Right capabilities/decisions but right place/time.
- swyx 6y ago
  i've tried to quote this to friends before and struggled to remember it, so here's a simple 2 by 2: 1. Accidental Luck (General, Passive luck) - you have the luck of a plant - just lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time 2. Active Luck (General, Active luck) - you have luck from randomly moving around more 3. Prepared Luck (Individual, Passive luck) - you have luck because you've trained yourself to notice when luck happens to you 4. Magnetic Luck (Individual, Active luck) - you have luck because you work on interesting things and people seek you out (i drew it out here: https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck) I also like the way Naval put it: 1. Hope luck finds you. 2. Hustle until you stumble into it. 3. Prepare the mind and be sensitive to chances others miss. 4. Become the best at what you do. Refine what you do until this is true. Opportunity will seek you out. Luck becomes your destiny.
moron4hire 6y ago
I would say this is exactly how I was able to pivot out of web and database development into VR development[0]. I spent a lot of time going out to meetups when I first started getting into VR. Meeting people, talking to people. Eventually, I started showing people the stuff I was building. That led to getting asked to do talks at the meetups about the stuff I was building. That led to more contacts. I ended up making friends with folks who would one day make the connections that got me my current job. Incidentally, when folks at my current employer started talking about hiring someone for my role, they kept running into people who knew me and had a high opinion of me. Networking works in many directions. But it only works if you don't go into it looking for it to work. I think the big key was that I wasn't out to gladhand with folks. I was just out to make friends over a shared passion. It gives an authenticity to your speech that people can see. [0] Which now has a big web and database component, all in service to the VR app that I'm building.
ldbooth 6y ago
I like the visual of a surface area. It adds to how I think about it... The equation for luck similar as luck being the compounding interest component and over time, compounding itself with consistent doing. Compounding applies to many things, but take a business, years in business and word of mouth/experience is a form of compounding customers/revenue. Same for luck and doing something consistently with enthusiasm.
jonnycomputer 6y ago
Given just how much bad luck I've had in my life, I'm not sure I want to increase my Luck Surface Area. Ha ha. I know, that's not what the blog post is talking about. Well, sort of. Obviously, more exposure also means more risk. Like, I never used to get publication scam spam until I got published.
villasv 6y ago
> When you pour energy into a passion, you develop an expertise and an expertise of any kind is valuable I don't disagree with the overall spirit, but these Paul Graham aphorisms always turn me off. > To satisfy my mathematically oriented brain I've gone one step further and formalized the concept into the equation L = D * T, where L is luck, D is doing and T is telling. See? There's no passion here. It really isn't relevant to what is being discussed. Sure, passion is great. The more the better, the world is incredible when you're surrounded by it. Developers are fond of writing beautiful code, I am one of those too. But god damn, hold the inner coach and remember y'all are not psychologists. There is no reason to reduce the multitude of complex motivations to a single amorphous concept such as passion.
- jonnycomputer 6y ago
  It is funny, because D * T suggests that it can all be done with D with just a smidgin' of T, or that you can just do a lot of talking with just a smidgin' of D. But I guess I forgot about the Trump Presidency. So maybe D * T is the right model.
  - hazeii 6y ago
    D == T maximises the area, and note it's not linear. If you've got 12 units to split between D and T, total return is:- 1D 11 2D 20 3D 27 4D 32 5D 35 6D 36 So inefficient to be at the smidgen end on either axis, but anywhere roughly equal is fine.
    - jonnycomputer 6y ago
      Good pont. Still that's more or less assuming that the costs and returns of D and T are roughly similar. But talk is cheap, and it is not clear that the returns earned are the same. if we are intent on maximizing u(d, t) = u(d) * u(t) we still need u(d) and u(t) to know what quantities of d and t will do the job (assuming that there is a maximum, or not more than one...)
soared 6y ago
I really really dislike the idea that everything you do needs to be multiplied by networking. Not everything is entrepreneurship, not everyone is looking to meet people to accomplish x. I had hoped this article was something unique, but one paragraph in and it’s more growth hacking nonsense.
postit 6y ago
I struggle a lot with advertising my work outside the company. I'm the kind of engineer that will get anything done regardless of the tech (or people/process) complexity, and I always end up watching someone else in the team going to conferences to present my work. Random reasons random, but mostly because my inner klout is way bigger than my outer persona.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Do you not want to be the person presenting or are you being prevented from doing so for whatever reason. (And if the reason is something like presentation skills, do you care enough to do something about it?)
  - postit 6y ago
    Most of my work is per contract on which I've usually signed a non-disclosal.
bigbassroller 6y ago
I have come to a similar conclusion through the phrase “luck is opportunity meets preparation”.
baxtr 6y ago
I just love the positive tone of this article. There is so much hope and positivism. I find it energizing.
swyx 6y ago
They did a lot of good coining the term "luck surface area" - i hear it about once a month now in tech circles. I actually went much further and did a literature review on the philosophy of luck: https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/ https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/ In short, the next step after the LSA concept is the idea of four kinds of luck, summarized by pmarca as others have noted. https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html But I think all of these are missing the angle of strategic intent - i.e. actively trying to go towards where luck is more likely. Luck is not evenly distributed. That is where I hope to add to the existing literature.
okareaman 6y ago
Coincidentally I just read this today: "There is no such thing in the world as luck. There never was a man who could go out in the morning and find a purse full of gold in the street to-day, and another to-morrow, and so on, day after day: He may do so once in his life; but so far as mere luck is concerned, he is as liable to lose it as to find it. "Like causes produce like effects." If a man adopts the proper methods to be successful, "luck" will not prevent him. If he does not succeed, there are reasons for it, although, perhaps, he may not be able to see them." THE ART OF MONEY GETTING or GOLDEN RULES FOR MAKING MONEY By P.T. Barnum https://www.gutenberg.org/files/8581/8581-h/8581-h.htm https://www.gutenberg.org/files/8581/8581-h/8581-h.htm
- spacemansam 6y ago
  While I love him dearly, I'd definitely take any advice (or anything in fact) that the good Mr. Barnum was selling, with a pillar of salt.
MrYellowP 6y ago
"People" aren't actually a variable in this. The variable is "amount of potential interactions with the environment". People are a part of ones environment. Compared to someone who sits at home all day, the odds of "having luck" increase dramatically simply by going outside and walking around. This includes "meeting new or old people", talking to them, sharing what you do etc. What the author completely ignores is that it also increases the odds of getting unlucky. I feel like the author has a rather romantic perspective on this.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rhodopsin 6y ago
“The harder I work, the luckier I get.” – Samuel Goldwyn

353 points by deadcoder0904 6y ago

A theory that only works for people who are lucky enough to be surrounded by supportive people. Some people have the misfortune to know people whose usual reaction is throwing sand in other people's gears. People who crap on other people's plans. Just as good luck can compound, so can bad luck.

umvi 6y ago
> A theory that only works for people who are lucky enough to be surrounded by supportive people. It's possible to change who surrounds you. By socializing in new bubbles, making new friends, or just plain moving to a new location.
- Shared404 6y ago
  With enough bad luck, it's possibly to never have the opportunity to make those changes.
  - doctorhandshake 6y ago
    That’s what the internet is for!
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- TheCowboy 6y ago
  This is also possible, but it's also something where luck, personal resources, and experience play a role in determining how successful such changes will be.
- brudgers 6y ago
  Whether or not that works is a matter of luck. Part of that luck is the recognition that the people close are unsupportive and knowledge that there are supportive people. If someone has had the bad luck of growing up surrounded by unsupportive people, the recognition and knowledge don't occur naturally. The problem of long term socialization with assholes is that a person tends to be socialized to being an asshole. That facilitates new friendships with new assholes more than it facilitates new friendships with non-assholes. It facilitates socializing in asshole rich bubbles...etc.
mish33 6y ago
Bad luck may follow the same formula: what you did wrong times how many people that affected.

pototo666 6y ago

I like this idea. It's simple and elegant. I am accidentally practising it. I make games. I tried and failed to get investement and partners. So I am making games alone. Last week I started streaming my daily work. I stream my the other screen display, such that I can decide what to show and what to hide. I told myself, streaming cost me no money and I might attract attention of partners and investors. Nothing unfold yet. But I would continue.

_jjkk 6y ago
I have seen multiple indie developers successfully begin marketing on their unfinished / unremarkable prototype far in advance. In fact some of them get so popular they pivot into "I make videos of myself making games" instead of "I make games" I would recommend doubling up exposure by recording your streams, then cutting up the best clips and releasing them as Youtube videos. Also posting these Youtube videos to Reddit when possible (obviously following their self-promotion rules) Here is an example channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEhOhNgoZHI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEhOhNgoZHI
- pototo666 6y ago
  Recoding stream is a good idea! Thanks for this concrete advice and example :))

williamonill 6y ago

I think this equation completely forgets to take into account the power of the people you tell about your ideas. If you are studying in Stanford and can literally walk into the office of professor X and tell him about your ideas (which worked pretty well for Elizabeth Holmes and professor Channing Robertson but that's a different story) you have an enormous competitive advantage. And if you have a Stanford professor on your side, it's pretty easy to open doors to other influential people. On the other hand, if you tell your idea some stranger on the Internet... chances are much lower that you will find the right people.

sigmaprimus 6y ago

I'm not sure the variable of how many other people I tell about my passion has an effect of its success. I have several passions and many ventures based on them. I believe "A farmer has as much luck as he has seeds in the ground" regardless of how many people are involved. I my case "seeds" are ventures that I start based on my passions, many will wither but some will do well and a few do great. The great ones seem to draw others to get involved even when I try to keep them low key.

sh490 6y ago

By increasing the size of your exposure. Ideally, diversifying exposure to opportunities/people/circles/etc. This should be done concurrently with (if not as a result of) increasing quality and amount of your output. By the time you meet the 'right' person, are in the 'right circle', you'll have something to show. Otherwise, it's wasted opportunity, and hence wasted luck.

hntrader 6y ago
That's what the article says: Luck = Doing * Telling

KineticLensman 6y ago

I'll stick with the proverbial Seneca: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Which is actually a generalization of the author's (relatively narrow) thesis where 'opportunity' depends primarily on the people that you meet and the 'preparation' is being passionate about something.

Closi 6y ago
I think this is roughly the same thesis with different words - preparation = doing and telling = creating opportunities.
- dade_ 6y ago
  Except Seneca said this 2000 years ago and used far fewer words than this blog post.
king_magic 6y ago
A previous manager of mine told me that same quote years ago. It’s never left me, and has always been a valuable way to look at the world.
emrah 6y ago
That's a nice quote but I wonder if something was lost in translation. "Preparation" seems too "point-in-time", like you do X, Y, Z and you are ready.. which doesn't seem right. Opportunities in life are moving targets, there is no way to be "prepared" at any point in time. I think a better way to say this would be "Luck is what happens when momentum meets opportunity". So you are engaged with something (like running a SaaS company), something happens (like one of your large competitors goes out of business) and your activities up to that point put you in a spot that makes it possible to benefit from that event.

colanderman 6y ago

(2010). There's since been much discussion of this post here, and generalization to other aspects of life. E.g. I remember the example, if your goal is to date a model, start hanging out in places (cafes/bars) where models hang out.

choxi 6y ago

Product-market fit often has an element of luck, otherwise someone else would have found the opportunity already. So this is really good advice for anyone working on a startup, it's sort of another way of saying the classic YC advice that you should be "building things and talking to customers". I really like this mental model, one thing I've noticed about my failed startup attempts is that I did a lot of "doing" but not "telling".

Closi 6y ago
I think that’s a slightly different thesis - I think this one is more about ‘lucky breaks’ I.e. Microsoft selling its first basic compiler, vs finding your product market fit.

kharak 6y ago

Being passionate about something for a long time (not just a couple of hours or weeks) seems to be a rare quality. Too bad for those who lack it, as it seems to be a requirement for success in everything. There are so many posts that try to tell you how to get the most out of your passion, I haven't seen one that explains the origin of passion or whether it is possible to become passionate.

analyst74 6y ago
Opposite of passion is contentment, which is also very desirable for many. You just can't have both, because with a burning passion, comes a sense of imperfection and constant struggle to get better but never enough, or worse, fear of decay and irrelevance, an inevitable outcome as one ages.
- nicbou 6y ago
  You can be passionate and content. There are plenty of passionate artists, athletes and engineers who don't care about going pro, getting famous or changing the world. For example, I'm passionate about software development, but I make simple things that don't matter. I'm passionate about cooking, but only for myself and the occasional guest. I'm also passionate about the website I live from, but I don't worry much about its growth. I like to build stuff, but I don't want an audience or its recognition. I don't want users nor money. I just do it because it's nice.
  - Judgmentality 6y ago
    I think this is just a simple semantics distinction. I believe what you mean by passion is interest, and what OP means by passion is drive. I think you're discussing slightly different things. I don't believe it is possible to be driven and satisfied at the same time. But I believe it is possible to be interested and content simultaneously.
    - nicbou 6y ago
      But I am driven. I wake up in the morning, make coffee and code all day, for fun. I go to special grocers to find the right ingredients. I'm just not driven by the desire to be successful. I'm content with home-cooked meals and their software equivalent.

hwestiii 6y ago

Louis Pasteur figured this out in the 19th century. “Chance favors the prepared mind.”

mrandish 6y ago

The concept in the post is something I've observed in my own life and the lives of others. The article highlights that it's just not "doing" but doing something you are "passionate" about. I get a little stuck on that word because it evokes the "follow your passions" type of advice which can be taken the wrong way. Here I think the key is it's not just "doing" anything but rather something you care enough about to at least try to do well. In other words, you're putting attention and energy into it. This tends to be something others notice because it's authentic. The other thing which seems to elevate outcomes in this context is not just "telling" people as measured by quantity but also by quality. Just sharing with large numbers of people may work but trying to share with those who also "do" things will reach those most likely to care about what you're doing, the way you're doing it or even just that you're "doing" things with genuine personal investment. When I see that, it usually stands out and I'm much more likely to want to engage with that person.

Invictus0 6y ago

There is no such thing as being lucky. It is just a matter of perspective. Luck is what happens when people spontaneously feel grateful.

OgAstorga 6y ago
Isn't a good hand in Texa's considered luck? Isn't being invited by M. Zuckerberg to help code a side project named thefacebook considered luck (whether or not you've accepted)?
- Invictus0 6y ago
  These are just circumstances that present themselves to you. They are no more or less lucky than waking up in the morning, seeing the sun shine, or having clean water to drink. It's a matter of perspective.
freshpots 6y ago
Check this out, your opinion may change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I (12:03)
- adnzzzzZ 6y ago
  Check this out, your opinion may change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw (54:01)
  - ruang 6y ago
    I like Peter Thiel's quote: A-B testing only works if you have a billion years (from Darwin)
alfiedotwtf 6y ago
I think from your comment, you didn't the article

yalogin 6y ago

This is only tangentially related to the article. I keep hearing a lot of “put effort into what you are passionate about”. One thing I found is passion is also generated. It happened to be many times, I force myself to work and n something for some time and I automatically see the beauty/challenge in it and develop the motivation without the need to push. I want to hear other’s opinions on it.

xyzelement 6y ago

An Israeli entrepreneur once introduced me to the idea of "the adjacent possible" - meaning, as you progress to "the next point" - the possibilities connected to that point are available to you. Somewhere else, I read the definition of "intelligence" as that which maximizes its future options. I think both things hit at the same idea of "surface area of luck". We think of luck as "a good opportunity you can take advantage of" - if you become someone who can take advantage of more opportunities, you become luckier. Some of the strategies that helped me (none of them are intentional): - Never passing up an opportunity to learn - whether new skill or new degree or new industry or a new personal challenge. As Steve Jobs said, sometimes you don't learn until later how the dots connect to what you eventually do. - Diversifying my experience. EG: 13~ years ago I was a "senior software developer." Since then, I had been a "development manager", a "product manager" and also for a time a "senior software developer" again. When I lost my job a few months ago, I was able to look at opportunities along all 3 of these job tracks, whereas if I had stayed in the single track, I'd have 1/3 the options. - Ditto to industries. Until now, everything I did was in finance, so I intentionally found a role outside of finance, because I could always go back to it if I need to, but now I am proving to myself (and to my resume) that I can cross industries and work anywhere. That again increases. your surface area. - Have a diverse network, for example find a way to connect with young talented people where you are (first job, university) because they will disperse throughout the world and may do cool things and you may want to do those things with them, or they can just help you. It has been amazing how much people that I had barely connected with when we worked together were willing to help when I needed a referral/advice/whatever. - I'll call this one out separately: help people. Make time to mentor people, help them get jobs, put in a good word, whatever. Not everyone will "pay you back" but it doesn't matter, the reputation of "xyzelement's a good guy, he's generally helpful" means the world, especially as you become more senior. - Be the dumbest guy in the room. You grow more when being surrounded by those who can challenge you uncomfortably. Pick the right room. Comfort = death. - Troubleshoot your mind. Most of us are held back by stupid hangups. For example, most developers I know could be overall way more successful if they got over shyness/fear of public speaking. Figure out why you fear whatever you fear, and work to get over it. Imagine you didn't go for your dream job because it has some minute attribute that you pointlessly fear. - Check your language. If you find that "they" are responsible for what's happening to you, you have given away all your power. Figure out how "you" are responsible for where you and and what opportunities "you" have, and then own it and act.

binbag 6y ago

Do things you're keen on? Deep.

motohagiography 6y ago

Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of any kind, you naturally orient to getting exposure to opportunity for diversified parts of it, but when you have a scarcity view, your decisions are necessarily all/nothing, and it even becomes a class culture thing. It's circumstances, but also learned attitude. Related, I'm sympathetic to what's happening with GME and WSB, if a young persons net worth is four digits, it seems insane not to gamble it on options, as the housing bubble has cut off the last way for working people to get leverage. GME may mark the inflection point in the markets where young people realize it's their best or even only opportunity for leverage, and meme stocks are going to be the new normal because the economy doesn't provide anything better to invest in for under $50k. (that is, unless remote work makes distant property viable to live in)

Nevermark 6y ago
I hate to say “Bitcoin” because of its high risk, short track record, volatility, faddish aura, etc, but: I believe it’s filling a gap beyond being a better gold-like asset. Better gold = digitally portable, 24 hr liquidity, digital literate friendly, fixed cap, transactions (even with its limits), decentralized control, etc. But the solidly fixed cap is more profound than I think most people recognize. Potentially, once Bitcoin finds its “true” price, it will continue to grow in value in proportion to all wealth in the economy - over the long run. So it won’t just be a hedge against downturns, but eventually a semi-stable way of sharing in overall increasing wealth in the economy. I don’t know of another instrument that anyone can easily buy that might track (over the long run) with global wealth as apposed to particular entities or particular aspects of the economy. So in that sense, anyone can participate in overall wealth growth. A very useful new tool! OF COURSE, this is SPECULATION on my part. But I think the idea of a total global wealth correlated asset is new and useful.
- dehrmann 6y ago

the-dude 6y ago

I practice this in billiards/carambole ( 3 balls, no pockets ). I try to avoid 'perpendicular' approaches, instead opting for shots with big angles, even if they are technically more difficult. This literally translates into a larger area where I have the chance to touch the 3rd ball.

pontifier 6y ago

This puts the onus on others. In my opinion the biggest contributors to luck are observation i.e. the ability to see opportunity, and willingness to execute on the opportunities you see.

freshpots 6y ago

This is an excellent video from Veritasium that discusses luck as a factor of success: https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I

carrozo 6y ago

I’ve had this old post from Marc Andreessen pinned in my mental browser for a long time now. There are four types of luck and you can influence three of them: Chance I is completely impersonal; you can't influence it. Chance II favors those who have a persistent curiosity about many things coupled with an energetic willingness to experiment and explore. Chance III favors those who have a sufficient background of sound knowledge plus special abilities in observing, remembering, recalling, and quickly forming significant new associations. Chance IV favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors. https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html

rexreed 6y ago
Of all those kinds of chance, the kind that you can really prepare for is really only Chance-type III. Chance I is truly deus-ex-machina stuff you can't foresee nor plan for. Chance II encourages randomness and serendipity, but those who lack the ability of discernment and proper focus risk being ADHD never focusing enough on anything to capture any opportunity, should it even emerge. Chance III rewards those who have deepened their knowledge and have stubborn persistence to weather the inevitable rough patches. Because if it's not rough, then it's too obvious, and if it's too obvious, there's no real upside opportunity. You can plan for Chance III and prepare yourself for this. Chance IV is black swan. It is the rarest of conditions where an eccentric hobby results in significant upside. You can't plan for this, and if you do pursue an eccentric hobby you should do it out of pure personal interest rather than planning for a black swan upside opportunity. I have a feeling Marc Andreesen would consider himself to be Chance II or Chance III. And I question if his "luck" can truly be attributable to Chance II but rather his ability to "will" his fortune into being by virtue of being in Chance III.
- ghaff 6y ago
  And he really owes much of his fortune to Chance I. Right capabilities/decisions but right place/time.
swyx 6y ago
i've tried to quote this to friends before and struggled to remember it, so here's a simple 2 by 2: 1. Accidental Luck (General, Passive luck) - you have the luck of a plant - just lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time 2. Active Luck (General, Active luck) - you have luck from randomly moving around more 3. Prepared Luck (Individual, Passive luck) - you have luck because you've trained yourself to notice when luck happens to you 4. Magnetic Luck (Individual, Active luck) - you have luck because you work on interesting things and people seek you out (i drew it out here: https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/#four-kinds-of-luck) I also like the way Naval put it: 1. Hope luck finds you. 2. Hustle until you stumble into it. 3. Prepare the mind and be sensitive to chances others miss. 4. Become the best at what you do. Refine what you do until this is true. Opportunity will seek you out. Luck becomes your destiny.

moron4hire 6y ago

I would say this is exactly how I was able to pivot out of web and database development into VR development[0]. I spent a lot of time going out to meetups when I first started getting into VR. Meeting people, talking to people. Eventually, I started showing people the stuff I was building. That led to getting asked to do talks at the meetups about the stuff I was building. That led to more contacts. I ended up making friends with folks who would one day make the connections that got me my current job. Incidentally, when folks at my current employer started talking about hiring someone for my role, they kept running into people who knew me and had a high opinion of me. Networking works in many directions. But it only works if you don't go into it looking for it to work. I think the big key was that I wasn't out to gladhand with folks. I was just out to make friends over a shared passion. It gives an authenticity to your speech that people can see. [0] Which now has a big web and database component, all in service to the VR app that I'm building.

ldbooth 6y ago

I like the visual of a surface area. It adds to how I think about it... The equation for luck similar as luck being the compounding interest component and over time, compounding itself with consistent doing. Compounding applies to many things, but take a business, years in business and word of mouth/experience is a form of compounding customers/revenue. Same for luck and doing something consistently with enthusiasm.

jonnycomputer 6y ago

Given just how much bad luck I've had in my life, I'm not sure I want to increase my Luck Surface Area. Ha ha. I know, that's not what the blog post is talking about. Well, sort of. Obviously, more exposure also means more risk. Like, I never used to get publication scam spam until I got published.

villasv 6y ago

> When you pour energy into a passion, you develop an expertise and an expertise of any kind is valuable I don't disagree with the overall spirit, but these Paul Graham aphorisms always turn me off. > To satisfy my mathematically oriented brain I've gone one step further and formalized the concept into the equation L = D * T, where L is luck, D is doing and T is telling. See? There's no passion here. It really isn't relevant to what is being discussed. Sure, passion is great. The more the better, the world is incredible when you're surrounded by it. Developers are fond of writing beautiful code, I am one of those too. But god damn, hold the inner coach and remember y'all are not psychologists. There is no reason to reduce the multitude of complex motivations to a single amorphous concept such as passion.

jonnycomputer 6y ago
It is funny, because D * T suggests that it can all be done with D with just a smidgin' of T, or that you can just do a lot of talking with just a smidgin' of D. But I guess I forgot about the Trump Presidency. So maybe D * T is the right model.
- hazeii 6y ago
  D == T maximises the area, and note it's not linear. If you've got 12 units to split between D and T, total return is:- 1D 11 2D 20 3D 27 4D 32 5D 35 6D 36 So inefficient to be at the smidgen end on either axis, but anywhere roughly equal is fine.
  - jonnycomputer 6y ago
    Good pont. Still that's more or less assuming that the costs and returns of D and T are roughly similar. But talk is cheap, and it is not clear that the returns earned are the same. if we are intent on maximizing u(d, t) = u(d) * u(t) we still need u(d) and u(t) to know what quantities of d and t will do the job (assuming that there is a maximum, or not more than one...)

soared 6y ago

I really really dislike the idea that everything you do needs to be multiplied by networking. Not everything is entrepreneurship, not everyone is looking to meet people to accomplish x. I had hoped this article was something unique, but one paragraph in and it’s more growth hacking nonsense.

postit 6y ago

I struggle a lot with advertising my work outside the company. I'm the kind of engineer that will get anything done regardless of the tech (or people/process) complexity, and I always end up watching someone else in the team going to conferences to present my work. Random reasons random, but mostly because my inner klout is way bigger than my outer persona.

ghaff 6y ago
Do you not want to be the person presenting or are you being prevented from doing so for whatever reason. (And if the reason is something like presentation skills, do you care enough to do something about it?)
- postit 6y ago
  Most of my work is per contract on which I've usually signed a non-disclosal.

bigbassroller 6y ago

I have come to a similar conclusion through the phrase “luck is opportunity meets preparation”.

baxtr 6y ago

I just love the positive tone of this article. There is so much hope and positivism. I find it energizing.

swyx 6y ago

They did a lot of good coining the term "luck surface area" - i hear it about once a month now in tech circles. I actually went much further and did a literature review on the philosophy of luck: https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/ https://www.swyx.io/create_luck/ In short, the next step after the LSA concept is the idea of four kinds of luck, summarized by pmarca as others have noted. https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html https://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html But I think all of these are missing the angle of strategic intent - i.e. actively trying to go towards where luck is more likely. Luck is not evenly distributed. That is where I hope to add to the existing literature.

okareaman 6y ago

Coincidentally I just read this today: "There is no such thing in the world as luck. There never was a man who could go out in the morning and find a purse full of gold in the street to-day, and another to-morrow, and so on, day after day: He may do so once in his life; but so far as mere luck is concerned, he is as liable to lose it as to find it. "Like causes produce like effects." If a man adopts the proper methods to be successful, "luck" will not prevent him. If he does not succeed, there are reasons for it, although, perhaps, he may not be able to see them." THE ART OF MONEY GETTING or GOLDEN RULES FOR MAKING MONEY By P.T. Barnum https://www.gutenberg.org/files/8581/8581-h/8581-h.htm https://www.gutenberg.org/files/8581/8581-h/8581-h.htm

spacemansam 6y ago
While I love him dearly, I'd definitely take any advice (or anything in fact) that the good Mr. Barnum was selling, with a pillar of salt.

MrYellowP 6y ago

"People" aren't actually a variable in this. The variable is "amount of potential interactions with the environment". People are a part of ones environment. Compared to someone who sits at home all day, the odds of "having luck" increase dramatically simply by going outside and walking around. This includes "meeting new or old people", talking to them, sharing what you do etc. What the author completely ignores is that it also increases the odds of getting unlucky. I feel like the author has a rather romantic perspective on this.

deleted 6y ago

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rhodopsin 6y ago

“The harder I work, the luckier I get.” – Samuel Goldwyn