5 ms·

It should be noted that this is likely nit worse than Pfizer, despite marketing. The 50% for Sinovac is real world data; the 95% for Pfizer comes from company p

It should be noted that this is likely nit worse than Pfizer, despite marketing. The 50% for Sinovac is real world data; the 95% for Pfizer comes from company phase 3 data. Well, last night a reputable Israeli HMO posted it’s real world data for Pfizer, and it’s 50% after 18 days and doesnt seem to get much better (but they don’t have enough data yet to know for sure). And now, although everyone claims Pfizer says you get 50% after 1st dose and 95# after second, if you read the actual filing, that’s not what it says; efficiency is achieved at day 13 by Pfizer data almost fully; and the reduction in severe disease (the only interesting endpoint) is 75% with confidence interval 0-100%

Dzidas 6y ago
"The data, which looked at more than 700,000 fully vaccinated people in Israel, found that only .04 percent of people contracted Covid-19, according to the head of Israel’s Ministry of Health, Dr. Sharon Alroy Preis at a press conference on Thursday. The type of vaccine Israel has mostly used is the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine with a small number of doses from Moderna. The two vaccines use the same technology, and in clinical trials were found to be about 95% effective. " https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-29-21/h_a52c58a8bb72bb98f7668ed869afb927 https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic... Can you share your datasource claiming that efficacy is only 50%?
- beagle3 6y ago
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v... You’ll have to actually read it, or find a tldr from someone who knows what they are doing. The same calc that leads to 0.04% above would say overall covid mortality is 0.08% and is intentionally misleading - but no news media so far (in Israel or outside) has done any review. They are all parroting the misleading numbers. Anything but primary data these days is suspect. (Pfizer’s own primary data, btw, says severe disease is 75% RRR with CI 0-100%. Did you see anyone reporting on that?) Edit: to add: Israel is an a horrible bind right now. The vaccine is only 50% effective but gov has done very badly in handling the disease and promoted the vaccine as “our way out”, so the gov is attempting to hide that data. Unfortunately for them, Israel is too small and the culture not supportive of hiding this, even if at this point the mass media is cooperating with the government.
  - Ulrich2 6y ago
    Please stop spreading lies. The paper is only about "The effectiveness of the first dose of BNT162 ..." 50% efficacy after the first dose is exactly the number that BioNTech reported in its Phase3 trial. So nothing unusual here. That is why the 2nd booster shot is needed to get to 95%.
    - beagle3 6y ago
      No it is not. Have you actually read either Pfizer’s report or this paper? Looked at their data? The graphs, both in Pfizer’s original report and in this paper, show that past about two weeks, there is almost no change. Please look at the Pfizer graphs and tell me where the great advance is from 50% to 90% Also, if yo actually read the Pfizer report, you’ll notice the 95% is for mild disease - a totally uninteresting result. For severe disease, it is 75% with a CI spanning the whole 0-100% range.
      - Ulrich2 6y ago
        Well, the solution to this dispute is easy => We just wait another 8 weeks: (1) If am right, then Covid is gone in Israel by end of March. (2) If you are right, Covid will be still a huge problem in in Israel.
        beagle3 6y ago
        I won't hold you to this, even though you are guaranteed to lose in this bet even if you are right - because the trial for 5-12 that would allow to vaccinate them is not expected to yield any data until later than that. Even if you are right, it will still be here in that age group. Also, there's a nature paper from last week that shows incredible correlation between Sun UVB at 34% of equator and the date that a wave starts. Covid will be gone by June, just like last year, thanks entirely to that effect (and possibly arrive again in Sep/Oct, or not). I'm not interested in meterology, but it's possible that even if I'm right, by end of March covid will be very dim in correlation with UVB exposure. The amount of data actually attributable to cause and effect is incredibly miniscule. I do data science for a living. The headlines are basically all wrong, most discussions are, and quite a bit of the primary data cannot be right. added: p.s - Did you actually read the papers before calling me a lier (or after?) or just did it based on headlines. I'm not holding it against you either way, just wondering.
yyyk 6y ago
>Well, last night a reputable Israeli HMO posted it’s real world data for Pfizer, and it’s 50% after 18 days and doesnt seem to get much better Their initial results are actually very encouraging[0] in this regard. [0] https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/Hk2URcnku https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/Hk2URcnku
- beagle3 6y ago
  That is propaganda. The real data is in https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v... and is 50% (not uniformly over age groups, but 50% is a good summary of it all). The Israeli government failed miserably in dealing with covid. They were successful in getting the vaccines (and thanks to the HMOs and no thanks to the government, deploy them quickly) and selling the hopium that this will solve everything and make up for the failure so far. So now they are in a very bad place. If they admit the real stats publicly before the vaccine project is done, people will stop getting vaccinated (not because 50% effective is bad - but because they’ve been misled). No one wants that. I suspect that’s why the media (ynetnews - a local USA Today equivalent, included) are all parroting the official statements without review comment or criticism. The numbers in the ynetnews are not false but they are (likely intentionally) misleading. If you used the same arguments, you’d get an IFR that’s way lower than the flu, for example. They cherry picked a completely meaningless statistic that looks good, and claimed it is the vaccine efficiency. It is not.
  - Ulrich2 6y ago
    Please stop spreading lies. The paper is only about "The effectiveness of the first dose of BNT162 ..." 50% efficacy after the first dose is exactly the number that BioNTech reported in its Phase3 trial. So nothing unusual here. That is why the 2nd booster shot is needed to get to 95%.
    - beagle3 6y ago
      See my other reply to the other copy of your comment. Please prove that you actually read the Pfizer report and not just repeating headlines before calling me a lier. I might have misread some data, but I see no indication that you are in a position to judge that.

Dzidas 6y ago

"The data, which looked at more than 700,000 fully vaccinated people in Israel, found that only .04 percent of people contracted Covid-19, according to the head of Israel’s Ministry of Health, Dr. Sharon Alroy Preis at a press conference on Thursday. The type of vaccine Israel has mostly used is the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine with a small number of doses from Moderna. The two vaccines use the same technology, and in clinical trials were found to be about 95% effective. " https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-29-21/h_a52c58a8bb72bb98f7668ed869afb927 https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic... Can you share your datasource claiming that efficacy is only 50%?

beagle3 6y ago
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v... You’ll have to actually read it, or find a tldr from someone who knows what they are doing. The same calc that leads to 0.04% above would say overall covid mortality is 0.08% and is intentionally misleading - but no news media so far (in Israel or outside) has done any review. They are all parroting the misleading numbers. Anything but primary data these days is suspect. (Pfizer’s own primary data, btw, says severe disease is 75% RRR with CI 0-100%. Did you see anyone reporting on that?) Edit: to add: Israel is an a horrible bind right now. The vaccine is only 50% effective but gov has done very badly in handling the disease and promoted the vaccine as “our way out”, so the gov is attempting to hide that data. Unfortunately for them, Israel is too small and the culture not supportive of hiding this, even if at this point the mass media is cooperating with the government.
- Ulrich2 6y ago
  Please stop spreading lies. The paper is only about "The effectiveness of the first dose of BNT162 ..." 50% efficacy after the first dose is exactly the number that BioNTech reported in its Phase3 trial. So nothing unusual here. That is why the 2nd booster shot is needed to get to 95%.
  - beagle3 6y ago
    No it is not. Have you actually read either Pfizer’s report or this paper? Looked at their data? The graphs, both in Pfizer’s original report and in this paper, show that past about two weeks, there is almost no change. Please look at the Pfizer graphs and tell me where the great advance is from 50% to 90% Also, if yo actually read the Pfizer report, you’ll notice the 95% is for mild disease - a totally uninteresting result. For severe disease, it is 75% with a CI spanning the whole 0-100% range.
    - Ulrich2 6y ago
      Well, the solution to this dispute is easy => We just wait another 8 weeks: (1) If am right, then Covid is gone in Israel by end of March. (2) If you are right, Covid will be still a huge problem in in Israel.
      - beagle3 6y ago
        I won't hold you to this, even though you are guaranteed to lose in this bet even if you are right - because the trial for 5-12 that would allow to vaccinate them is not expected to yield any data until later than that. Even if you are right, it will still be here in that age group. Also, there's a nature paper from last week that shows incredible correlation between Sun UVB at 34% of equator and the date that a wave starts. Covid will be gone by June, just like last year, thanks entirely to that effect (and possibly arrive again in Sep/Oct, or not). I'm not interested in meterology, but it's possible that even if I'm right, by end of March covid will be very dim in correlation with UVB exposure. The amount of data actually attributable to cause and effect is incredibly miniscule. I do data science for a living. The headlines are basically all wrong, most discussions are, and quite a bit of the primary data cannot be right. added: p.s - Did you actually read the papers before calling me a lier (or after?) or just did it based on headlines. I'm not holding it against you either way, just wondering.

yyyk 6y ago

>Well, last night a reputable Israeli HMO posted it’s real world data for Pfizer, and it’s 50% after 18 days and doesnt seem to get much better Their initial results are actually very encouraging[0] in this regard. [0] https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/Hk2URcnku https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/Hk2URcnku

beagle3 6y ago
That is propaganda. The real data is in https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v... and is 50% (not uniformly over age groups, but 50% is a good summary of it all). The Israeli government failed miserably in dealing with covid. They were successful in getting the vaccines (and thanks to the HMOs and no thanks to the government, deploy them quickly) and selling the hopium that this will solve everything and make up for the failure so far. So now they are in a very bad place. If they admit the real stats publicly before the vaccine project is done, people will stop getting vaccinated (not because 50% effective is bad - but because they’ve been misled). No one wants that. I suspect that’s why the media (ynetnews - a local USA Today equivalent, included) are all parroting the official statements without review comment or criticism. The numbers in the ynetnews are not false but they are (likely intentionally) misleading. If you used the same arguments, you’d get an IFR that’s way lower than the flu, for example. They cherry picked a completely meaningless statistic that looks good, and claimed it is the vaccine efficiency. It is not.
- Ulrich2 6y ago
  Please stop spreading lies. The paper is only about "The effectiveness of the first dose of BNT162 ..." 50% efficacy after the first dose is exactly the number that BioNTech reported in its Phase3 trial. So nothing unusual here. That is why the 2nd booster shot is needed to get to 95%.
  - beagle3 6y ago
    See my other reply to the other copy of your comment. Please prove that you actually read the Pfizer report and not just repeating headlines before calling me a lier. I might have misread some data, but I see no indication that you are in a position to judge that.