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I would frame this on two axis: 1) outsider vs establishment 2) expert vs layperson My opinion (see below for how I have defined these) Outsider expert > esta
by Paddywack 6y ago
I would frame this on two axis:
1) outsider vs establishment
2) expert vs layperson
My opinion (see below for how I have defined these)
Outsider expert > establishment expert for public ally challenging and overturning norms
Any expert > layperson on the basic facts (ignoring statistical aberrations, of course)
“Outsider” being unconstrained by norms, not afraid to be cast out of a long established peer group
“Expert” has deep grasp of contemporary facts, second and third order consequences, puts in controls to remove cognitive biases, deep curiosity and healthy scepticism.
“Layperson” being someone who is probably intelligent, but grasps quickly onto unfamiliar concepts and data and makes heuristic calls based on limited data.
- Paddywack 6y agoNote the Dunning Kruger effect too!
- edmundsauto 6y agoSo Michael Mauboussin is kinda of my obsession in this area. Basically, if it's a field with a lot of luck involved in outcomes, don't trust the experts (finance and economics). If it's heavily skill based (chess), trust the experts.