3 ms·

"Right kind of people" have no accountability to their advice. A doctor can't really just hazard a guess without actual facts to base them in or risk losing the

"Right kind of people" have no accountability to their advice. A doctor can't really just hazard a guess without actual facts to base them in or risk losing their ability to practice and/or reputation. "Right kind of people" can be and are often plenty wrong about things but it fades into obscurity and they are never held accountable. Of course they are right sometimes but on many issues with a binary choice (should or shouldn't wear masks) that's a 50% chance. In the long run you want to be able to discern hearsay, opinion, and rumors from facts and accountability to them. You see it today when inquiring if a pregnant woman should get the vaccine. Doctors won't really advise you because although they maybe feel it's totally safe if you're far enough along, they would be held accountable if something happened. They can be "pretty sure" about things, but that isn't enough. Meanwhile, "very smart person" on Twitter can reference a bunch of content from unaccountable people that says it's safe and come off as an expert when they aren't. It's easy to be "right" when you don't have skin in the game and especially so when no one is going to hold you to account for all the times you were wrong or misinformed.

Tenoke 6y ago
>A doctor can't really just hazard a guess without actual facts to base them in or risk losing their ability to practice and/or reputation. No, but one doctor might base advice on one study he saw another on a different one. Having skin in the game helps but it is also well documented that doctors might be overly cautious due to risk of litigation and thus sometimes chose suboptimal courses of action. >Of course they are right sometimes but on many issues with a binary choice (should or shouldn't wear masks) that's a 50% chance. No, this isn't a real coinflip. There's evidence for and against things like this, and some people have learned better than others how to evaluate such evidence and can definitely do better than 50%.
DennisP 6y ago
Last spring I was briefly lectured by a maskless doctor who said I shouldn't bother with the mask I was wearing at an appointment. I shrugged and kept my mask on. A month or two later I saw him again. He was wearing a mask that time and didn't complain about mine. That doctor didn't just avoid guessing. He gave unsolicited advice, on limited information, that turned out to be exactly wrong and somewhat dangerous.
- nemo44x 6y ago
  It sounds like that doctor has lost some reputation to you now. It’s hard for people to say “I don’t know” for some reason.

Tenoke 6y ago

>A doctor can't really just hazard a guess without actual facts to base them in or risk losing their ability to practice and/or reputation. No, but one doctor might base advice on one study he saw another on a different one. Having skin in the game helps but it is also well documented that doctors might be overly cautious due to risk of litigation and thus sometimes chose suboptimal courses of action. >Of course they are right sometimes but on many issues with a binary choice (should or shouldn't wear masks) that's a 50% chance. No, this isn't a real coinflip. There's evidence for and against things like this, and some people have learned better than others how to evaluate such evidence and can definitely do better than 50%.

DennisP 6y ago

Last spring I was briefly lectured by a maskless doctor who said I shouldn't bother with the mask I was wearing at an appointment. I shrugged and kept my mask on. A month or two later I saw him again. He was wearing a mask that time and didn't complain about mine. That doctor didn't just avoid guessing. He gave unsolicited advice, on limited information, that turned out to be exactly wrong and somewhat dangerous.

nemo44x 6y ago
It sounds like that doctor has lost some reputation to you now. It’s hard for people to say “I don’t know” for some reason.