3 ms·
Predicting second- and subsequent order effects accurately is basically impossible for any non-trivial issue. Here I'd argue that the effect may instead be tha
by ballenf 6y ago
Predicting second- and subsequent order effects accurately is basically impossible for any non-trivial issue.
Here I'd argue that the effect may instead be that professionals are able to figure out what the amateurs are doing differently and incorporate it into their discipline.
If you hold up the research trying to figure out which second-order effect is more likely, you'll never get any research done on anything of substance. (You see, the second order effect of your suggestion is an overall suppression of research. Damn, arguing from second-order effects sure is tempting!)
- toyg 6y agoSuppression, no; but choosing priorities carries an element of ethical responsibility. You can choose to dedicate your time towards improving chemical weapons or towards improving harvest yields. Better chemical weapons will likely come about anyway, but why hasten their arrival?
- ballenf 6y agoIsn't that a first order effect though? A second order effect would be researching a life-saving drug for a lifestyle condition. You research means people have less incentive to live healthily and end up dying even sooner from some other diet-related disease. The disease you cured would have scared them "straight" diet-wise.
- toyg 6y agoThis is nitpicking. Replace "improving chemical weapons" with "improving gases that will likely only be used in chemical weapons".