4 ms·

> left holding stock they bought for $100, $200, $300, or $400 a share (WSB was memeing share price was gonna go into the thousands) that is worth <$90 Many pe

> left holding stock they bought for $100, $200, $300, or $400 a share (WSB was memeing share price was gonna go into the thousands) that is worth <$90 Many people said the same thing about TSLA before it stabilized at higher levels. I bought at under $40 and sold around $80 because I thought fundamentals mattered. Turns out they don't right now. Everyone talking about what GME is 'actually worth' is spouting bullshit. The fact is, no one knows. Because it's up to the market.

kryogen1c 6y ago
>Everyone talking about what GME is 'actually worth' is spouting bullshit. The fact is, no one knows. Because it's up to the market. youre right in that no one, least of all me, can predict future stock prices, but i think youre missing the point. even if GME stabilizes at $150 - which is an unlikely tripling of value - most of the people involved are going to lose most of their investment. the fundamental principal is that a short-squeeze HAS to end in a pricing crash. its the whole mechanism by which the squeeze occurs in the first place. the final price isnt really relevant, the point is that most people have to absorb large losses by definition. I think a lot of the players dont understand this; they think its free money, and are gonna scream bloody murder because they think they only lost because RH did something illegal. RH actions are irrelevant, legal or not, because the trade was bad in the first place. the only way this doesnt happen is if the original market was wrong about GME to the tune of 1000%. maybe the short squeeze happens and GME never crashes, it peaks and stays at $350 and then beats the S&P 500 by 10% YoY for the next decade and everyone that bought long just makes money. if you believe that then well, good luck.
- slfnflctd 6y ago
  > the only way this doesnt happen is if the original market was wrong about GME to the tune of 1000% The reason I used TSLA as an example is because this is pretty close to what happened there! The future scenarios 'priced in' to that company now are several degrees beyond ludicrous. I don't think I'm missing the point at all, which to me is: massive swaths of the entire market are super irrational right now, and have been for a while, with no end in sight. > no one, least of all me, can predict future stock prices This seems more true to me today than it ever has been. After all the shit I've seen happen with stocks in the past few years (2020 especially), things I used to consider impossible I no longer do. None of this makes any sense any more. I don't really have the stomach for it, honestly, the whole thing makes me nauseous. But if I want my meager savings to do anything other than lose value, I still have to try to evaluate what's going on to weigh my choices.
  - kryogen1c 6y ago
    > massive swaths of the entire market are super irrational right now, and have been for a while, with no end in sight. good point. youre making me second guess myself, but i think in the end GME's case is just too extreme. it mightve been undervalued at $20, but i just dont see the volume of positions >$200 as defendable or profitable. even if the gamma drives the price bananas high today, the end result will just be an even larger crash at the end.
Tinyyy 6y ago
TSLA was included into the S&P because they had a profitable business - GME makes net losses so the S&P won’t be bagholding it.
nend 6y ago
>I thought fundamentals mattered. Turns out they don't right now. Fundamentals never matter "right now". Fundamentals are about long-term investing and growing money over time. Day trading is about speculation, not investing. WallstreetBETS has nothing to do with market fundamentals or investing money. This is the point of the Keynes quote "The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" - Markets don't rely on the the "fundamentals" in the short term, only in the long term. >Everyone talking about what GME is 'actually worth' is spouting bullshit. That's because in the long term, GME's value hasn't changed. GameStop the company is just as valuable as it was a month, meaning it's basically worthless. Which means before too long the stock is going to crash and the majority of people who bought it are going to lose a lot of money, while the few who bought earlier will make out. Whether it's the legal definition of "pump and dump" is pretty irrelevant, because in practice it's a pump and dump scheme, and is going to leave the majority of people involved with a lot of regrets.
- slfnflctd 6y ago
  > Fundamentals are about long-term investing and growing money over time [...] Day trading is about speculation What you call 'day trading' has turned into week trading, has turned into multiple-month trading, and I would argue even beyond a year now in a lot of cases. Plenty of stocks have been pumped far beyond what their 'fundamentals' would justify. In some cases, that has changed the trajectory of companies and even entire sectors. > in the long term, GME's value hasn't changed This is entirely debatable. The investors just changed it, and new people are on the board who could potentially turn it into an eSports empire, or the next Valve, or who knows what else. Not at all likely, I know, but money changes things and there is some amount of 'true believer' investment happening, like we saw with Tesla. Honestly, I don't like all this volatility one bit. I am increasingly concerned about not ending up homeless when I'm elderly. But the fact is, the market appears to be changing, and so-called 'retail investors' may be gaining new prominence in the greater order of things. Valuations based on hopes for what could happen 30 years out instead of how much paper profits got jacked up over a 3-month period. It's scary and I don't like it. But who knows, in the long run it could be a good thing? I don't think you, or I, or anyone else can say from here.

kryogen1c 6y ago

>Everyone talking about what GME is 'actually worth' is spouting bullshit. The fact is, no one knows. Because it's up to the market. youre right in that no one, least of all me, can predict future stock prices, but i think youre missing the point. even if GME stabilizes at $150 - which is an unlikely tripling of value - most of the people involved are going to lose most of their investment. the fundamental principal is that a short-squeeze HAS to end in a pricing crash. its the whole mechanism by which the squeeze occurs in the first place. the final price isnt really relevant, the point is that most people have to absorb large losses by definition. I think a lot of the players dont understand this; they think its free money, and are gonna scream bloody murder because they think they only lost because RH did something illegal. RH actions are irrelevant, legal or not, because the trade was bad in the first place. the only way this doesnt happen is if the original market was wrong about GME to the tune of 1000%. maybe the short squeeze happens and GME never crashes, it peaks and stays at $350 and then beats the S&P 500 by 10% YoY for the next decade and everyone that bought long just makes money. if you believe that then well, good luck.

slfnflctd 6y ago
> the only way this doesnt happen is if the original market was wrong about GME to the tune of 1000% The reason I used TSLA as an example is because this is pretty close to what happened there! The future scenarios 'priced in' to that company now are several degrees beyond ludicrous. I don't think I'm missing the point at all, which to me is: massive swaths of the entire market are super irrational right now, and have been for a while, with no end in sight. > no one, least of all me, can predict future stock prices This seems more true to me today than it ever has been. After all the shit I've seen happen with stocks in the past few years (2020 especially), things I used to consider impossible I no longer do. None of this makes any sense any more. I don't really have the stomach for it, honestly, the whole thing makes me nauseous. But if I want my meager savings to do anything other than lose value, I still have to try to evaluate what's going on to weigh my choices.
- kryogen1c 6y ago
  > massive swaths of the entire market are super irrational right now, and have been for a while, with no end in sight. good point. youre making me second guess myself, but i think in the end GME's case is just too extreme. it mightve been undervalued at $20, but i just dont see the volume of positions >$200 as defendable or profitable. even if the gamma drives the price bananas high today, the end result will just be an even larger crash at the end.

Tinyyy 6y ago

TSLA was included into the S&P because they had a profitable business - GME makes net losses so the S&P won’t be bagholding it.

nend 6y ago

>I thought fundamentals mattered. Turns out they don't right now. Fundamentals never matter "right now". Fundamentals are about long-term investing and growing money over time. Day trading is about speculation, not investing. WallstreetBETS has nothing to do with market fundamentals or investing money. This is the point of the Keynes quote "The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" - Markets don't rely on the the "fundamentals" in the short term, only in the long term. >Everyone talking about what GME is 'actually worth' is spouting bullshit. That's because in the long term, GME's value hasn't changed. GameStop the company is just as valuable as it was a month, meaning it's basically worthless. Which means before too long the stock is going to crash and the majority of people who bought it are going to lose a lot of money, while the few who bought earlier will make out. Whether it's the legal definition of "pump and dump" is pretty irrelevant, because in practice it's a pump and dump scheme, and is going to leave the majority of people involved with a lot of regrets.

slfnflctd 6y ago
> Fundamentals are about long-term investing and growing money over time [...] Day trading is about speculation What you call 'day trading' has turned into week trading, has turned into multiple-month trading, and I would argue even beyond a year now in a lot of cases. Plenty of stocks have been pumped far beyond what their 'fundamentals' would justify. In some cases, that has changed the trajectory of companies and even entire sectors. > in the long term, GME's value hasn't changed This is entirely debatable. The investors just changed it, and new people are on the board who could potentially turn it into an eSports empire, or the next Valve, or who knows what else. Not at all likely, I know, but money changes things and there is some amount of 'true believer' investment happening, like we saw with Tesla. Honestly, I don't like all this volatility one bit. I am increasingly concerned about not ending up homeless when I'm elderly. But the fact is, the market appears to be changing, and so-called 'retail investors' may be gaining new prominence in the greater order of things. Valuations based on hopes for what could happen 30 years out instead of how much paper profits got jacked up over a 3-month period. It's scary and I don't like it. But who knows, in the long run it could be a good thing? I don't think you, or I, or anyone else can say from here.