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“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home

by kgwgk 6y ago

“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year,” [Musk] said on a press call [in October 2016]. “Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.” How much did you need to know about tech to realize that wasn't going to happen?

PartiallyTyped 6y ago
Consider the following, everyone claimed reusing rockets was physically impossible. Well here we are now. Sure 'end of next year' may be impossible, but doing it at some point is not necessarily impossible given certain conditions. Nothing to do with targets, everything to do with values. And a company is more than what it produces, it is also the patents they own and the brains they wield. PS: I do research in ML.
- kgwgk 6y ago
  The patents expire. The brains have legs. A valuation of 20 times revenue - and thousands of times earnings - is not justified by saying "a company is more than what it produces". Edit: put otherwise, how does your comment relate to the fact that Tesla was trading at 5-10% of the current price in 2019? Aren't the patents and brains the same? Why are Tesla's patents and brains worth now almost as much as those of Apple or Microsoft?
- totalZero 6y ago
  I don't know anyone who claimed that reusing rockets was physically impossible. The Space Shuttle SRBs were reusable. To paraphrase you, "here we were then."
  - PartiallyTyped 6y ago
    IIRC the boosters were not reusable.
    - totalZero 6y ago
      You don't recall correctly. "At an altitude of approximately 45 km (24 nautical miles), the boosters separate from the orbiter/external tank, descend on parachutes, and land in the Atlantic Ocean. ... They are recovered by ships, returned to land, and refurbished for reuse." https://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/system/system_SRB.html https://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/system/system_SRB.html

by kgwgk 6y ago

PartiallyTyped 6y ago

Consider the following, everyone claimed reusing rockets was physically impossible. Well here we are now. Sure 'end of next year' may be impossible, but doing it at some point is not necessarily impossible given certain conditions. Nothing to do with targets, everything to do with values. And a company is more than what it produces, it is also the patents they own and the brains they wield. PS: I do research in ML.

kgwgk 6y ago
The patents expire. The brains have legs. A valuation of 20 times revenue - and thousands of times earnings - is not justified by saying "a company is more than what it produces". Edit: put otherwise, how does your comment relate to the fact that Tesla was trading at 5-10% of the current price in 2019? Aren't the patents and brains the same? Why are Tesla's patents and brains worth now almost as much as those of Apple or Microsoft?
totalZero 6y ago
I don't know anyone who claimed that reusing rockets was physically impossible. The Space Shuttle SRBs were reusable. To paraphrase you, "here we were then."
- PartiallyTyped 6y ago
  IIRC the boosters were not reusable.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    You don't recall correctly. "At an altitude of approximately 45 km (24 nautical miles), the boosters separate from the orbiter/external tank, descend on parachutes, and land in the Atlantic Ocean. ... They are recovered by ships, returned to land, and refurbished for reuse." https://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/system/system_SRB.html https://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/system/system_SRB.html