3 ms·

Also, I’m not sure exactly how you meant it, so I won’t direct this at you, just generally... I can’t get over the techbro straw man of the “lockdown” I’ve see

Also, I’m not sure exactly how you meant it, so I won’t direct this at you, just generally... I can’t get over the techbro straw man of the “lockdown” I’ve seen thrown around a lot. First, compared to most of Asia that actually got this virus under control, we have never really had much of a true lockdown here. Second, it’s not the lockdown, its the pandemic. In most areas economic activity dropped off well before any lockdowns and has remained subdued regardless of lockdown duration as long as the virus remains active. That is - the economic activity drop is more correlated with level of virus outbreak than with any government orders. In NYC, everyone I know got sent home a week or more before any city/state lockdowns started. The only time offices were mandated to be closed in NYC was about 8 weeks when we had refrigerated trucks parked outside hospitals acting as mobile morgues, and the National Guard picking up 100s of bodies per day of those who died at home. For the most part companies have kept people WFH because they can get close to 100% productivity with close to 0% absences due to disease & death. The mental health angle of more time spent at home, I still think is a wash. For every extrovert craving lording over a conference room of coworkers, there’s an introvert enjoying reduction in forced social interactions. Lots of people actually like their family & enjoy spending more time with them.

strken 6y ago
Can't speak to the US lockdown, but Melbourne, Victoria, Australia had restrictive lockdowns (1 hour outdoor exercise with up to 2 people together, 1 daily trip to the supermarket per household, couldn't travel more than 5km from your house, police roadblocks out of the city and out of the state, non-essential industries shut down and some essential ones operating at significantly reduced capacity, 8pm-5am curfew) and was accompanied by a 22% spike in calls to the largest suicide hotline. Even introverts can miss going outside or seeing their family.
- h0l0cube 6y ago
  > was accompanied by a 22% spike in calls to the largest suicide hotline A counterfactual: how many people would be affected if their spouse/parent died without the lockdown? These tragedies are unfolding in many countries, and by this misfortune we'll be able to see, in retrospect, the impact of government interventions vs outcomes in a pandemic.
  - strken 6y ago
    I'm 100% in support of the lockdown, and Australia hasn't had a locally acquired case for well over a week, but supporting something doesn't mean being blind to the downsides.
- steveBK123 6y ago
  Even when NYC was at 500% daily death rate, there was nothing resembling that level of lockdown. I cannot stress enough how much the US lockdowns resembled nothing like what some of the countries that got the virus under control did. Groceries restricted number of simultaneous customers, but I could go anytime and as many times as I wished. Restaurants were open for takeout. Parks were open, and capacity was not enforced. Transit was operational. I could get in my car and drive wherever, Uber was running, etc. I’m fairly certain flights were running through this. So people were socializing indoors with friends&family obviously. Many singles in their 20s I knew went back home to mom&dad, especially if they lived alone. No curfew. In fact the only curfew we had was a few days during BLM rallies.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  And yet those stricter lockdowns in Australia (stricter than in the US) paid off. There are very few cases at this point and little if any community spread.
- toomanybeersies 6y ago
  However, despite a spike in calls, the actual number of suicides in Victoria was lower in 2020 than previous years [1] [1] https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-victoria-dip-despite-fears-pandemic-would-drive-increase-20210118-p56uwp.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-vict...
dnautics 6y ago
> we have never really had much of a true lockdown here. And parts of europe had more of a lockdown than the US and the population fatality rate is worse. I wonder if covid just doesn't care about lockdowns; the countries that haven't gotten hit badly are 1) an island. 2) an isolated continent. 3) an island 4) a country that sits on a peninsula that has a hugely militarized impermeable border. and 5) a group of islands. Even within the US, the state that has the lowest per capita covid rate... Is an island. Even at the micro level, the city in the bay area that is one of the least affected... Is an island. On the other hand the UK has a higher CFR and a higher per population mortality than the US, so...
- freeone3000 6y ago
  It also correlates well with countries that habitually wear masks and avoid close personal contact when feeling unwell, which fits the data better as it removes the UK outlier.
  - herewegoagain2 6y ago
    So you are saying asymptomatic infections are not an issue?
- makomk 6y ago
  It's also bad pretty much everywhere in Europe as well. During the first wave, everyone pointed to the Czech Republic as a country that'd done well. They currently have about the same Covid mortality rate as the UK in per-capita terms, last I saw, which had one of the deadlier outbreaks. (Also, the UK isn't much like an island in terms of connectivity to the rest of Europe, and that probably matters more than physical geography.)
- ookdatnog 6y ago
  Covid doesn't care about half-assed, poorly enforced lockdowns. China managed to control the virus pretty well it seems (after completely botching their early handling). Lockdowns seemed to work in my country early in the pandemic. But in my country many covid measures are reliant on goodwill and voluntary compliance, so if morale drops (as you'd expect with extended lockdown), you expect lockdown effectiveness to drop as well.
dehrmann 6y ago
> compared to most of Asia that actually got this virus under control Japan and South Korea had relatively big late December/early January waves. Not US-big, but enough that I wouldn't call it "under control." China is controlling it, but with another round of strict lockdowns. Taiwan is doing well. So is Singapore. I'm sure their policies are part of the reason, but I suspect the climate helps, too.
yoz-y 6y ago
> Lots of people actually like their family & enjoy spending more time with them. Let's not forget that there are a lot of people who don't live with families or in couple. For them (I am in this case too), most of social interactions are with colleagues during the day and friends in evenings or weekends. Both of these options are at minimum severely hindered.

strken 6y ago

Can't speak to the US lockdown, but Melbourne, Victoria, Australia had restrictive lockdowns (1 hour outdoor exercise with up to 2 people together, 1 daily trip to the supermarket per household, couldn't travel more than 5km from your house, police roadblocks out of the city and out of the state, non-essential industries shut down and some essential ones operating at significantly reduced capacity, 8pm-5am curfew) and was accompanied by a 22% spike in calls to the largest suicide hotline. Even introverts can miss going outside or seeing their family.

h0l0cube 6y ago
> was accompanied by a 22% spike in calls to the largest suicide hotline A counterfactual: how many people would be affected if their spouse/parent died without the lockdown? These tragedies are unfolding in many countries, and by this misfortune we'll be able to see, in retrospect, the impact of government interventions vs outcomes in a pandemic.
- strken 6y ago
  I'm 100% in support of the lockdown, and Australia hasn't had a locally acquired case for well over a week, but supporting something doesn't mean being blind to the downsides.
steveBK123 6y ago
Even when NYC was at 500% daily death rate, there was nothing resembling that level of lockdown. I cannot stress enough how much the US lockdowns resembled nothing like what some of the countries that got the virus under control did. Groceries restricted number of simultaneous customers, but I could go anytime and as many times as I wished. Restaurants were open for takeout. Parks were open, and capacity was not enforced. Transit was operational. I could get in my car and drive wherever, Uber was running, etc. I’m fairly certain flights were running through this. So people were socializing indoors with friends&family obviously. Many singles in their 20s I knew went back home to mom&dad, especially if they lived alone. No curfew. In fact the only curfew we had was a few days during BLM rallies.
UncleOxidant 6y ago
And yet those stricter lockdowns in Australia (stricter than in the US) paid off. There are very few cases at this point and little if any community spread.
toomanybeersies 6y ago
However, despite a spike in calls, the actual number of suicides in Victoria was lower in 2020 than previous years [1] [1] https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-victoria-dip-despite-fears-pandemic-would-drive-increase-20210118-p56uwp.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-vict...

dnautics 6y ago

> we have never really had much of a true lockdown here. And parts of europe had more of a lockdown than the US and the population fatality rate is worse. I wonder if covid just doesn't care about lockdowns; the countries that haven't gotten hit badly are 1) an island. 2) an isolated continent. 3) an island 4) a country that sits on a peninsula that has a hugely militarized impermeable border. and 5) a group of islands. Even within the US, the state that has the lowest per capita covid rate... Is an island. Even at the micro level, the city in the bay area that is one of the least affected... Is an island. On the other hand the UK has a higher CFR and a higher per population mortality than the US, so...

freeone3000 6y ago
It also correlates well with countries that habitually wear masks and avoid close personal contact when feeling unwell, which fits the data better as it removes the UK outlier.
- herewegoagain2 6y ago
  So you are saying asymptomatic infections are not an issue?
makomk 6y ago
It's also bad pretty much everywhere in Europe as well. During the first wave, everyone pointed to the Czech Republic as a country that'd done well. They currently have about the same Covid mortality rate as the UK in per-capita terms, last I saw, which had one of the deadlier outbreaks. (Also, the UK isn't much like an island in terms of connectivity to the rest of Europe, and that probably matters more than physical geography.)
ookdatnog 6y ago
Covid doesn't care about half-assed, poorly enforced lockdowns. China managed to control the virus pretty well it seems (after completely botching their early handling). Lockdowns seemed to work in my country early in the pandemic. But in my country many covid measures are reliant on goodwill and voluntary compliance, so if morale drops (as you'd expect with extended lockdown), you expect lockdown effectiveness to drop as well.

dehrmann 6y ago

> compared to most of Asia that actually got this virus under control Japan and South Korea had relatively big late December/early January waves. Not US-big, but enough that I wouldn't call it "under control." China is controlling it, but with another round of strict lockdowns. Taiwan is doing well. So is Singapore. I'm sure their policies are part of the reason, but I suspect the climate helps, too.

yoz-y 6y ago

> Lots of people actually like their family & enjoy spending more time with them. Let's not forget that there are a lot of people who don't live with families or in couple. For them (I am in this case too), most of social interactions are with colleagues during the day and friends in evenings or weekends. Both of these options are at minimum severely hindered.