4 ms·
"since the major monetary upheavals of the late middle ages, a trend decline between 0.6–1.6 basis points per annum has prevailed" " Against their long‑term co
by panax 6y ago
"since the major monetary upheavals of the late middle ages, a trend decline between 0.6–1.6 basis points per annum has prevailed"
" Against their long‑term context, currently depressed sovereign real rates are in fact converging ‘back to historical trend’ — a trend that makes narratives about a ‘secular stagnation’ environment entirely misleading, and suggests that — irrespective of particular monetary and fiscal responses — real rates could soon enter permanently negative territory. "
"if historical trends are extrapolated, R-G will soon reach permanently negative territory –a first since at least medieval times."
"Whatever the precise dominant driver – simply extrapolating such long-term historical trends suggests that negative real rates will not just soon constitute a “new normal” – they will continue to fall constantly. By the late 2020s, global short-term real rates will have reached permanently negative territory. By the second half of this century, global long-term real rates will have followed."
- AndrewBissell 6y agoExtrapolating a trend (even a 700 year long one) into the indefinite future is a fraught exercise, as is attempting to read it as benign just because it has perhaps been so in the past. Remind me, who was it that wrote about the tendency of the rate of the profit to fall over the long term, until the point it provokes a crisis?
- hardlianotion 6y agoYes, you’d greatly prefer to understand why.
- Context_free 6y agoYou can find the answer here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to_fall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit... This is the first thing that came to my mind as well...the current data on falling rentier rates, crises of political economy etc. makes sense in light of that old model.
- casualrandomcom 6y agoThat one actually predicted the First World War. I am actually with you on the first sentence but your counterexample is weak at best
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago"To (negative) infinity, and beyond!"