3 ms·

I suspect your confusion is based largely on the fact that you are outside the US. In the US driving is quite a bit different from much of the rest of the world

I suspect your confusion is based largely on the fact that you are outside the US. In the US driving is quite a bit different from much of the rest of the world. #1 Driving is a big part of the culture and big cities are often pretty far apart. #2 The electric charging infrastructure sucks. Tesla is seemingly the only network where you can drive 500 miles and be confident when you stop that a charge will actually take 20 minutes. #3 Americans like big ass cars because ??? Most of the EV competitors here in the US are small cars and most have ranges which are far lower than Tesla's. Even though most people rarely drive more than 50 miles a day, a lot of people are sketchy about getting into a car with 150 mile (320km) range. There are newer cars which are coming out that are closer, but many are either more expensive than the Teslas, have shorter range, or both. And I expect a lot of people are going to buy those non-Tesla options for $60-80,000+, and have a really unpleasant road trip the first time they get out and can't find a decent charging station. The result is the Tesla is pretty dominant here for EVs and frankly I don't see that changing for some time unless the charging situation changes.

moate 6y ago
This is all "speculation". You're not basing the stock price on earnings but intangibles. You believe there is a disconnect between the long term value of Tesla and it's current price based on your perception of market factors. Every single point you made could change in 6 months for reasons and negatively affect Tesla. Ford could come out with a contract to install electric charging stations throughout the US. Federal regulators could insist that all future EVs have a standard charging port/platform resulting in industry cooperation. My point is, "the short sellers are all fucked if we keep buying this and we will make money" and "Tesla is run by a godbrain and can't fail" are the same thing: speculations, not spreadsheets.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  > This is all "speculation". You're not basing the stock price on earnings but intangibles. Yes, it's absolutely (informed) speculation. This is how the stock market works. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft before them, Google... people said exactly what you are saying about how they were valued at some point in time. Every single stock is valued based on how stocks will perform in the future. Last year's performance is only interesting for informing investors of what the next 10 years will bring. I do think Tesla is a risky stock to own (I do own some shares), but it always has been. Likewise Apple was. And Amazon. If you want big returns you often hang on to the riskier stocks for longer than you are comfortable. (Not always and you cash out)
  - moate 6y ago
    I'm aware of what gambling is, and all the forms it can take from rolling dice in an alley to investing in the stock market. Your first post was trying to differentiate GameStop from Tesla. Neither have assets that support their price or that there is something inherent in the company to support that value. They don't. They have projections(Tesla) or excitement(GS). Throwing up a bunch of survivor-biased stocks to prove that sometimes people make winning bets (or rather, that some best win) doesn't mean anything. Amazon, Apple, MS all eventually moved past speculative and most people in the market would assume that they're pretty stable blue chips (in fact, that's why we have terms like "blue chip" in the first place) with assists that support the price. I'm not talking about how to make big money on stocks, I'm talking about the idea of inherent vs projected value. You said you think Tesla is risky, and that's my point. It seems much more likely that someone (car companies, energy cos, the government) would come in and kick the legs out from under Tesla than any FAANG company at this point (except maybe FB but I might just be projecting there)
    - ogre_codes 6y ago
      You are missing the entire point here. Stocks are not valued based on what they earned last year. They are valued based on whether people think owning them will earn them a profit in the future. You can certainly wait until a company has proven itself to invest in them. The problem with that is you will never get more than marginal returns. If you waited until Amazon was fairly valued, you'd probably still be sitting on the sidelines. Likewise with Apple. If you want guaranteed returns, you buy boring things like utility stocks and accept your 4% dividend and 5-10% growth. If you want bigger returns, you absolutely have to invest in things which some people consider over-valued. There is no other way. You just have to be good at picking which companies are going to be successful. Tesla, the jury is still out. I'm playing with the house's money at this point though. I am confident they aren't going to crash and burn entirely though. Comparing them to Gamestop doesn't make sense. Outside Reddit, there is no story with Gamestop. Tesla has products and growth, it's just a matter of finding where that growth ends.

moate 6y ago

This is all "speculation". You're not basing the stock price on earnings but intangibles. You believe there is a disconnect between the long term value of Tesla and it's current price based on your perception of market factors. Every single point you made could change in 6 months for reasons and negatively affect Tesla. Ford could come out with a contract to install electric charging stations throughout the US. Federal regulators could insist that all future EVs have a standard charging port/platform resulting in industry cooperation. My point is, "the short sellers are all fucked if we keep buying this and we will make money" and "Tesla is run by a godbrain and can't fail" are the same thing: speculations, not spreadsheets.

ogre_codes 6y ago
> This is all "speculation". You're not basing the stock price on earnings but intangibles. Yes, it's absolutely (informed) speculation. This is how the stock market works. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft before them, Google... people said exactly what you are saying about how they were valued at some point in time. Every single stock is valued based on how stocks will perform in the future. Last year's performance is only interesting for informing investors of what the next 10 years will bring. I do think Tesla is a risky stock to own (I do own some shares), but it always has been. Likewise Apple was. And Amazon. If you want big returns you often hang on to the riskier stocks for longer than you are comfortable. (Not always and you cash out)
- moate 6y ago
  I'm aware of what gambling is, and all the forms it can take from rolling dice in an alley to investing in the stock market. Your first post was trying to differentiate GameStop from Tesla. Neither have assets that support their price or that there is something inherent in the company to support that value. They don't. They have projections(Tesla) or excitement(GS). Throwing up a bunch of survivor-biased stocks to prove that sometimes people make winning bets (or rather, that some best win) doesn't mean anything. Amazon, Apple, MS all eventually moved past speculative and most people in the market would assume that they're pretty stable blue chips (in fact, that's why we have terms like "blue chip" in the first place) with assists that support the price. I'm not talking about how to make big money on stocks, I'm talking about the idea of inherent vs projected value. You said you think Tesla is risky, and that's my point. It seems much more likely that someone (car companies, energy cos, the government) would come in and kick the legs out from under Tesla than any FAANG company at this point (except maybe FB but I might just be projecting there)
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    You are missing the entire point here. Stocks are not valued based on what they earned last year. They are valued based on whether people think owning them will earn them a profit in the future. You can certainly wait until a company has proven itself to invest in them. The problem with that is you will never get more than marginal returns. If you waited until Amazon was fairly valued, you'd probably still be sitting on the sidelines. Likewise with Apple. If you want guaranteed returns, you buy boring things like utility stocks and accept your 4% dividend and 5-10% growth. If you want bigger returns, you absolutely have to invest in things which some people consider over-valued. There is no other way. You just have to be good at picking which companies are going to be successful. Tesla, the jury is still out. I'm playing with the house's money at this point though. I am confident they aren't going to crash and burn entirely though. Comparing them to Gamestop doesn't make sense. Outside Reddit, there is no story with Gamestop. Tesla has products and growth, it's just a matter of finding where that growth ends.