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Go to the third world and you'll see that reliability and longevity give Toyota a huge cachet that is basically unrivaled. That effect is amplified in countrie

Go to the third world and you'll see that reliability and longevity give Toyota a huge cachet that is basically unrivaled. That effect is amplified in countries that have import tariffs on automobiles, because the secondary market is large. Not everyone in the world buys cars to pleasure themselves. For most people, automobiles are a tool and their dependability is more important than their excitement factor. Also, anyone who buys a Tesla because they like SpaceX rockets is an absolute dunce. That's like subscribing to the Washington Post because you like the navel oranges that Amazon Fresh delivers.

TheRealDunkirk 6y ago
> Also, anyone who buys a Tesla because they like SpaceX rockets is an absolute dunce. That's like subscribing to the Washington Post because you like the navel oranges that Amazon Fresh delivers. You're not getting it. Musk is running Tesla as a tech company, NOT a "car" company. That's why he's been able to build the company through years and years of unprofitability, as Bezos did with Amazon. You're also not understanding the stock market (which is timely). Once that stock is sold to the market, the stock price only affects people's bonuses. It doesn't have any impact on the company's production or revenue. People buy (or sell) stock based on whether they think the price is going to go up or down. It's that simple. Tesla doesn't pay a dividend, and doesn't confer any meaningful voting rights (as Musk has secured a supermajority). There is LITERALLY no other reason to hold Tesla stock than to think it will go up. There's no other value to it. Why would it go up? Because of good press. Good press comes from a lot of events. The company doing well, financially, is great news! But rockets and satellites are just as good, if not better, than reports of high-quality automobiles. There's a very, very thin relationship between non-voting, non-dividend-paying stock, and a company's fundamentals. It's mostly a shared illusion that it's based on financials which makes the stock market work at all.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
>Go to the third world and you'll see that reliability and longevity give Toyota a huge cachet that is basically unrivaled. >That effect is amplified in countries that have import tariffs on automobiles, because the secondary market is large. This is the exact same naive logic people use to justify Tesla's valuating. On one hand you have yuppie fanboys bindly harping on about Tesla's magical engineering in the face of an Impala interior topped with a big tablet and panel gaps from the 80s. On the other hand there is another yuppie fanboy harping about "muh hilix" despite the fact that Toyota has lied through its teeth about rust in North America for ~30yr, the Hilux/LC aren't outstandingly (in the literal sense) popular in Asia and people in Africa/ME will bolt a machine gun to anything that runs regardless of brand. Camrys and Priuses are popular in the 3rd world because they are popular among moneyed people (i.e. the people who trade in 10yo cars instead of selling private party) in the first world and because of how the used car export market works (basically vaccuming up "nice" trade-ins that are too old for first world lenders to finance) they wind up popular in the 3rd world. People act like this is special about Toyota but it's not. The 3rd world is chock full of examples of other cars those same demographics buy. Chile practically runs on the 2nd-4th Gen Honda CRV and the GMT900 Chevy Suburban may as well be the official vehicle of Mexico (these are but two examples). My point is both brands have the same moat of moneyed first world delusion surrounding their stock. Toyota just isn't a meme-stock popular with retail investors.
- totalZero 6y ago
  Some of your response is a non-sequitur. The argument on the table is: > Toyota makes fairly boring products of the last century. Toyota sells around 10mm cars a year. Only about a fifth of those sales take place in Canada, US, and Mexico. The demand picture for EVs and vehicles in general is not uniform across geography. Some places like small cars, others big; some places like EVs, others have no chargers; some places buy new cars, others can't afford it. BTW Mexico has a different mix of vehicles because much of the first-world production happens within the country. And Chile has the highest median income of all Latin America. Extrapolating from some perception about the Chilean or Mexican auto market is a poor way to characterize LatAm in general. > On the other hand there is another yuppie fanboy harping about "muh hilix" despite the fact that Toyota has lied through its teeth about rust in North America for ~30yr, the Hilux/LC aren't outstandingly (in the literal sense) popular in Asia and people in Africa/ME will bolt a machine gun to anything that runs regardless of brand. OK so this is a bit more on topic. The Hilux is a great truck (even ISIS likes it) but I'm not talking about the Hilux and yuppies. I'm telling you that there are people who make $400/mo who are proud to buy a 10yo Toyota. They don't approach vehicle purchases the same way that an American would. The concept that a car is "last century" is absolutely ridiculous to that segment of the auto market. Those people don't buy these vehicles because of status, they buy them because the local mechanic tells them that the motors don't need to be rebuilt so often. Case study: Ecuador. Import tariffs make autos cost approximately double what they cost in the US, perhaps more. A Ford Raptor costs US$150k. Income disparity means there isn't a vibrant middle class. Fuel is subsidized; the country produces a half-million barrels of oil daily and has three refineries. Much of the transit (including in the Quito metropolitan area) occurs through mountains where roads are poor quality. Road closures due to landslides are common. A used Suzuki Grand Vitara that costs $700 in the US might go for $4,000 in Ecuador. You have this concept that people in the third world model their choices on the preferences of rich people. I don't believe that's true. Income disparity is so broad, and the middle class so narrow, that most non-rich people in LatAm just make do and try to survive.
  - TheRealDunkirk 6y ago
    Toyota must be the prestige brand in India. I live in a small town dominated by a Fortune 250 who employs thousands of H1-B's, mostly from India. About 90% of them drive Toyotas. The pattern is easily noticeable. It's also home to Toyota forklifts (TIEM), and, of course, lots of people at that company drive one. Me? I own 4 Hondas. ;-)

TheRealDunkirk 6y ago

> Also, anyone who buys a Tesla because they like SpaceX rockets is an absolute dunce. That's like subscribing to the Washington Post because you like the navel oranges that Amazon Fresh delivers. You're not getting it. Musk is running Tesla as a tech company, NOT a "car" company. That's why he's been able to build the company through years and years of unprofitability, as Bezos did with Amazon. You're also not understanding the stock market (which is timely). Once that stock is sold to the market, the stock price only affects people's bonuses. It doesn't have any impact on the company's production or revenue. People buy (or sell) stock based on whether they think the price is going to go up or down. It's that simple. Tesla doesn't pay a dividend, and doesn't confer any meaningful voting rights (as Musk has secured a supermajority). There is LITERALLY no other reason to hold Tesla stock than to think it will go up. There's no other value to it. Why would it go up? Because of good press. Good press comes from a lot of events. The company doing well, financially, is great news! But rockets and satellites are just as good, if not better, than reports of high-quality automobiles. There's a very, very thin relationship between non-voting, non-dividend-paying stock, and a company's fundamentals. It's mostly a shared illusion that it's based on financials which makes the stock market work at all.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

>Go to the third world and you'll see that reliability and longevity give Toyota a huge cachet that is basically unrivaled. >That effect is amplified in countries that have import tariffs on automobiles, because the secondary market is large. This is the exact same naive logic people use to justify Tesla's valuating. On one hand you have yuppie fanboys bindly harping on about Tesla's magical engineering in the face of an Impala interior topped with a big tablet and panel gaps from the 80s. On the other hand there is another yuppie fanboy harping about "muh hilix" despite the fact that Toyota has lied through its teeth about rust in North America for ~30yr, the Hilux/LC aren't outstandingly (in the literal sense) popular in Asia and people in Africa/ME will bolt a machine gun to anything that runs regardless of brand. Camrys and Priuses are popular in the 3rd world because they are popular among moneyed people (i.e. the people who trade in 10yo cars instead of selling private party) in the first world and because of how the used car export market works (basically vaccuming up "nice" trade-ins that are too old for first world lenders to finance) they wind up popular in the 3rd world. People act like this is special about Toyota but it's not. The 3rd world is chock full of examples of other cars those same demographics buy. Chile practically runs on the 2nd-4th Gen Honda CRV and the GMT900 Chevy Suburban may as well be the official vehicle of Mexico (these are but two examples). My point is both brands have the same moat of moneyed first world delusion surrounding their stock. Toyota just isn't a meme-stock popular with retail investors.

totalZero 6y ago
Some of your response is a non-sequitur. The argument on the table is: > Toyota makes fairly boring products of the last century. Toyota sells around 10mm cars a year. Only about a fifth of those sales take place in Canada, US, and Mexico. The demand picture for EVs and vehicles in general is not uniform across geography. Some places like small cars, others big; some places like EVs, others have no chargers; some places buy new cars, others can't afford it. BTW Mexico has a different mix of vehicles because much of the first-world production happens within the country. And Chile has the highest median income of all Latin America. Extrapolating from some perception about the Chilean or Mexican auto market is a poor way to characterize LatAm in general. > On the other hand there is another yuppie fanboy harping about "muh hilix" despite the fact that Toyota has lied through its teeth about rust in North America for ~30yr, the Hilux/LC aren't outstandingly (in the literal sense) popular in Asia and people in Africa/ME will bolt a machine gun to anything that runs regardless of brand. OK so this is a bit more on topic. The Hilux is a great truck (even ISIS likes it) but I'm not talking about the Hilux and yuppies. I'm telling you that there are people who make $400/mo who are proud to buy a 10yo Toyota. They don't approach vehicle purchases the same way that an American would. The concept that a car is "last century" is absolutely ridiculous to that segment of the auto market. Those people don't buy these vehicles because of status, they buy them because the local mechanic tells them that the motors don't need to be rebuilt so often. Case study: Ecuador. Import tariffs make autos cost approximately double what they cost in the US, perhaps more. A Ford Raptor costs US$150k. Income disparity means there isn't a vibrant middle class. Fuel is subsidized; the country produces a half-million barrels of oil daily and has three refineries. Much of the transit (including in the Quito metropolitan area) occurs through mountains where roads are poor quality. Road closures due to landslides are common. A used Suzuki Grand Vitara that costs $700 in the US might go for $4,000 in Ecuador. You have this concept that people in the third world model their choices on the preferences of rich people. I don't believe that's true. Income disparity is so broad, and the middle class so narrow, that most non-rich people in LatAm just make do and try to survive.
- TheRealDunkirk 6y ago
  Toyota must be the prestige brand in India. I live in a small town dominated by a Fortune 250 who employs thousands of H1-B's, mostly from India. About 90% of them drive Toyotas. The pattern is easily noticeable. It's also home to Toyota forklifts (TIEM), and, of course, lots of people at that company drive one. Me? I own 4 Hondas. ;-)