4 ms·
> ...in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020. > There
by sradman 6y ago
> ...in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020.
> There are at least four non-mutually exclusive possible explanations for the resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus.
1. wrong case reproduction number (R0) of 3
2. waning immunity
3. a new immunity evading variant
4. a more transmissible variant with a higher effective reproductive number
I'd say the simplest explanation is that the 76% seroprevalence study was wrong.