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And who are they going to sell them too? The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois not generic EV customers. And a car company like Honda cannot generate the

And who are they going to sell them too? The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois not generic EV customers. And a car company like Honda cannot generate the kind of hype theater that Tesla can, especially not in the US. Other car manufacturers cannot replicate Tesla's success because their customers are different and generic EVs are not a good value preposition for most of these customers.

ChuckMcM 6y ago
I would be interested in hearing how you reason to the statement that the "Other car manufacturers customers are different." As I see it, there are just "car customers." And they are a diverse population, from those who need maximum reliability and economy to those for whom their vehicle is an extension of their need for attention. But as diverse as they are, they form a single set, known in marketing parlance as the "total addressable market." When you write, "The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois ..." it reminds me when people would say "The people who buy a computer for their home are nerds ..." I expect that both of these statements were solidly true at one point, and then became less and less true over time as the diversity of people who felt the product in question was the right choice increased. So what I see in Tesla's results, and their history, is that they created a niche product that many people didn't understand the need for. But over time, as more and more have been shipped, more people can see the benefit. For example, here is a real anecdote. As an anecdote it means nothing of course, but for me it felt significant. My neighbor just bought a model 3. They had been in the camp that these things were a fad, a toy, a ridiculous idea, and "what about the range, and who wants to wait an hour to fill up?" kind of things. But another neighbor has one as well and has had it for a couple of years now. And we all talk and that neighbor was chuckling that they didn't even know the price of gas anymore since they hadn't been to a gas station in over a year! In those discussions, the range of the model 3 was such that they charge at home, and even on very "busy" days never have to plan to stop at a charging station. That is because in "real life" they never drive more than 200 miles in a day, and they never cannot fully recharge over night. Once the lightbulb went on about the reality of this, my other neighbor got their own Model 3. It was, for me, seeing one of the general pool of customers switch over from "only gas is okay" to "this could work for me." And that was instructive. Given the volume ramp reported by Tesla, I would not be surprised if this "conversion" experience were happening at an accelerating pace.

ChuckMcM 6y ago

I would be interested in hearing how you reason to the statement that the "Other car manufacturers customers are different." As I see it, there are just "car customers." And they are a diverse population, from those who need maximum reliability and economy to those for whom their vehicle is an extension of their need for attention. But as diverse as they are, they form a single set, known in marketing parlance as the "total addressable market." When you write, "The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois ..." it reminds me when people would say "The people who buy a computer for their home are nerds ..." I expect that both of these statements were solidly true at one point, and then became less and less true over time as the diversity of people who felt the product in question was the right choice increased. So what I see in Tesla's results, and their history, is that they created a niche product that many people didn't understand the need for. But over time, as more and more have been shipped, more people can see the benefit. For example, here is a real anecdote. As an anecdote it means nothing of course, but for me it felt significant. My neighbor just bought a model 3. They had been in the camp that these things were a fad, a toy, a ridiculous idea, and "what about the range, and who wants to wait an hour to fill up?" kind of things. But another neighbor has one as well and has had it for a couple of years now. And we all talk and that neighbor was chuckling that they didn't even know the price of gas anymore since they hadn't been to a gas station in over a year! In those discussions, the range of the model 3 was such that they charge at home, and even on very "busy" days never have to plan to stop at a charging station. That is because in "real life" they never drive more than 200 miles in a day, and they never cannot fully recharge over night. Once the lightbulb went on about the reality of this, my other neighbor got their own Model 3. It was, for me, seeing one of the general pool of customers switch over from "only gas is okay" to "this could work for me." And that was instructive. Given the volume ramp reported by Tesla, I would not be surprised if this "conversion" experience were happening at an accelerating pace.