3 ms·
Options are valuable because they are how Wall St. deals with probabilities. We don't actually know what a company is worth. You can imagine estimating the wo
by mdnahas 6y ago
Options are valuable because they are how Wall St. deals with probabilities.
We don't actually know what a company is worth. You can imagine estimating the worth (a.k.a., "net present value") of a company based on its future dividends (or stock buybacks). But any formula will contain a lot of probabilities of when each dividend will occur, the amount, and the discount factor (that is, how much future money is worth today). So what you get is actually a distribution of how much a company is worth.
The stock market doesn't deal with distributions directly. It uses options. A call option is the ability to buy a stock at a given price called the "strike price". So, from the prices for two call options, you can infer the probability that the stock's worth is between their strike prices.
- smabie 6y agoThis isn't really true. An options value is derived from a variety of inputs that have nothing to do with the price of the stock, namely, forecasted volatility and interest rates. No real option market maker is using anything except the current price of the stock to price their options. This isn't strictly true, but what I'm saying is that people don't determine the fair value of a stock through looking at option prices. If you want to learn more, check out black Scholes pricing model and option Greeks.