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Bayesian reasoning also means that treating a female client like shit is likely to encourage her to make a fuss, but somehow "bayesian reasoners" never make tha
by TuringTest 6y ago
Bayesian reasoning also means that treating a female client like shit is likely to encourage her to make a fuss, but somehow "bayesian reasoners" never make that inference.
- rich_sasha 6y agoYeah, it’s not a one-size-fits-all. If an old granny asks about computers, will you contemplate that she may well be a Linux engineer and know lots, or will your first pitch assume she doesn’t?
- TuringTest 6y agoIf she's buying at a Linux shop, I'd give a try to the hypothesis that she's an ancient hacker with l337 sk1lls, and make sure before assuming she's just entered the wrong store and really was looking for the grocery next door. For the same reason as the car example above or the Pascal's Wager - the cost of a prediction failure is so high that it changes the probabilities of your wrong-case calculations, no matter how strong the stereotype.
- rich_sasha 6y agoIt's not an either-or. You can treat people with respect, and assume they are knowledgable, and yet make Bayesian reasoning-type arguments. If I'm driving through what looks like a dodgy neighbourhood and need to stop and ask for directions, I'll be extra vigilant - based on essentially impressions. But I won't assume anyone I speak to is a thug, much less treat them that way. In other words, Bayesian reasoning is not an excuse for being an arsehole. Really, no cognitive process can be...