3 ms·

At 30% with first shot they're probably half way there to effective herd immunity. One thing I read out of Israel was vaccinating the most venerable would bring

At 30% with first shot they're probably half way there to effective herd immunity. One thing I read out of Israel was vaccinating the most venerable would bring the death rate down dramatically. Something like a 80/20 applies. What I'm worried about is a surge in infections in the gap between population wide herd immunity and just most the venerable. As the death rate falls people will get really careless.

rossdavidh 6y ago
The confirmed cases in Israel is over 6% of the population, and the multiple of that which would include asymptomatic and others who just didn't get tested is unknown, but probably somewhere from 4-8. Even if it's as the low end of that range, you could already be halfway to herd immunity. Of course, the ones getting vaccinated may often already have had it (whether they know it or not). Since the death rate tends to lag the confirmed cases rate by a couple weeks, I think the deaths will still go up for a bit regardless of whether or not people get careless.