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Look back 50 years, not 100 years. We're facing a situation where the standard of living is dropping for the young generation. - huge increase in labor supply:

Look back 50 years, not 100 years. We're facing a situation where the standard of living is dropping for the young generation. - huge increase in labor supply: outsourcing, women entering workforce in large numbers - productivity wage-gap: http://www.oecd.org/economy/decoupling-of-wages-from-productivity/ http://www.oecd.org/economy/decoupling-of-wages-from-product... - savings gap between millenials and previous generations: https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-saving-habits-less-wealth-versus-boomers-2020-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-saving-habits-le... - white american men's life expectancy dropping, for first time ever: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/life-expectancy-for-american-men-drops-for-a-third-year/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/life-expectancy-for-american-me... - cost of housing in major cities increasing dramatically - opioid epidemic - obesity epidemic - unemployment among the young in Europe is stubbornly high. Qualitatively, you can see nihilism on the rise among the young: https://jeromysonne.com/the-nihilism-of-r-wallstreetbets/ https://jeromysonne.com/the-nihilism-of-r-wallstreetbets/

throwaway_4253 6y ago
> Look back 50 years, not 100 years. This observation is often trotted out, but I'm not sure it's fair. 50 years ago was no picnic, either. We were mired in the Cold War (Vietnam, no less). Nixon was in the White House. There was tons of social unrest (Nixon wrote in his memoirs about the thousands of bomb threats and attempted bombings). Civil rights / racial tensions were extremely high (MLK was assassinated in '68). The 70's were an absolutely terrible economic decade - oil shock and stagflation, anyone? > huge increase in labor supply: outsourcing, women entering workforce in large numbers I recall watching a presentation a few years back on this, but sadly I can't find the link. This appears to be a follow-up on the research, though. (From the Brookings Institute -https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/where_does_all_the_money_go.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjk3PGYv7juAhWnJzQIHRWKDYUQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw12lervq-5L32-T0nfCWgRU https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/... In 1970, women entered the workforce, so you would have expected productivity to double, so GDP would have doubled, and thusly everyone's standard of living, right? Instead what happened is all that extra capital drove up costs in housing and healthcare. Credit cards were introduced and the savings rate plummetted. Instead of having tons of extra money, everyone actually wound up in debt instead. (Please note: I'm not blaming women entering the workforce for this phenomenon; it was totally our surrounding economic system) My high level point is that I think young people back then had a lot of reason to feel precarious and not trust in their institutions to act in their interests. We probably suffered a lot for it then, but we did eventually build our way out of it, for at least a short while, even if it feels like we're essentially further down the economic path now. Edit: cleaned up typo and link, sorry
- medium_burrito 6y ago
  I'm going to take the risk of saying "This time it's different!" - There is no such thing as lifetime employment for most fields. - Outsourcing wiped out a lot of decent jobs in the US. - Automation is wiping out a bunch more. - College debt is thing, though I fully expect this administration to forgive it. - Housing is significantly more expensive**. - All the rich countries are ageing fast. - Men are going to college much less, and trend is accelerating***. * Lawyers are a good example. Search engines have wiped out a whole class of entry-level legal work. We certainly don't need as many as we have now, but what well-paying jobs are going to replace them? Finance is going through a similar transition where you just don't need as many people to conduct trades. I feel like I was reading FT a few months ago and several of the major Ibanks were saying they expect to need a third as many employees in the next decade. **Taipei is a prime example. Taiwanese salaries are super low, yet property is super expensive. Last time I looked, around $100/sqft for condos. People buying investment properties are the obvious culprit, but I don't think there is political will to deprive the government of property taxes and wipe out the savings of older voters, in order to save the young. And lo and behold the birthrate is 0.9 there. ***I think this was on HN a few days ago: https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-mass-disappearance-of-men-from-college/ https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-.... You can argue college is a waste of time, and I'm inclined to agree, but I think we can make up a narrative where young men feel there is no hope.
- mikem170 6y ago
  There's other possible possible confounding factors, like the rise of mass media and the internet, leaving the gold standard and the growth of the finance, increased beaucratization and corporatization of everything, etc. Hard to know sometimes how all this stuff is related. But I think it is valid that the parent pointed out that younger generations today feel screwed, that they won't be able to do as well economically or socially as their parents. Many are lonely on the internet, trapped in student loans, and searching for decent jobs. On average they are having to postpone leaving their parents houses, getting married, having kids and buying a house, waiting to do these things until significantly later in life than their parents and grandparents. They've heard about the American Dream and don't feel like they'll have it. And there's a lot of them. I know that this is not true for everybody, lots of things are better, and it's relative - other people have it worse, etc. But this sentiment is still a thing - a lot of young people feel like they have it worse than their parents and grandparents. I don't know that debating the details will change their minds.
watwut 6y ago
Women entering workforce did raised standard for a lot of them. The domestic violence and abuse rates against women are down by a lot. And yes, they go up and down with female employment too, employment affects how she can manage her status in family, how much is husband resentful over her being at home and crucially, how much she is locked. (I don't know male abuse stats and the whole topic is less talked about) > opioid epidemic, obesity epidemic Alcohol consumption is down against 1971. The heroin, cocain etc problems are smaller then they used to be. People are less violent overall. People still live longer. And while they are obese, their life expectancy went up against that time. And some of it is that historical diseases from various malnutritions are down. Economic standards are dropping for new graduates. But, it is not all bleak everything is worst situation.

throwaway_4253 6y ago

> Look back 50 years, not 100 years. This observation is often trotted out, but I'm not sure it's fair. 50 years ago was no picnic, either. We were mired in the Cold War (Vietnam, no less). Nixon was in the White House. There was tons of social unrest (Nixon wrote in his memoirs about the thousands of bomb threats and attempted bombings). Civil rights / racial tensions were extremely high (MLK was assassinated in '68). The 70's were an absolutely terrible economic decade - oil shock and stagflation, anyone? > huge increase in labor supply: outsourcing, women entering workforce in large numbers I recall watching a presentation a few years back on this, but sadly I can't find the link. This appears to be a follow-up on the research, though. (From the Brookings Institute -https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/where_does_all_the_money_go.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjk3PGYv7juAhWnJzQIHRWKDYUQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw12lervq-5L32-T0nfCWgRU https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/... In 1970, women entered the workforce, so you would have expected productivity to double, so GDP would have doubled, and thusly everyone's standard of living, right? Instead what happened is all that extra capital drove up costs in housing and healthcare. Credit cards were introduced and the savings rate plummetted. Instead of having tons of extra money, everyone actually wound up in debt instead. (Please note: I'm not blaming women entering the workforce for this phenomenon; it was totally our surrounding economic system) My high level point is that I think young people back then had a lot of reason to feel precarious and not trust in their institutions to act in their interests. We probably suffered a lot for it then, but we did eventually build our way out of it, for at least a short while, even if it feels like we're essentially further down the economic path now. Edit: cleaned up typo and link, sorry

medium_burrito 6y ago
I'm going to take the risk of saying "This time it's different!" - There is no such thing as lifetime employment for most fields. - Outsourcing wiped out a lot of decent jobs in the US. - Automation is wiping out a bunch more. - College debt is thing, though I fully expect this administration to forgive it. - Housing is significantly more expensive**. - All the rich countries are ageing fast. - Men are going to college much less, and trend is accelerating***. * Lawyers are a good example. Search engines have wiped out a whole class of entry-level legal work. We certainly don't need as many as we have now, but what well-paying jobs are going to replace them? Finance is going through a similar transition where you just don't need as many people to conduct trades. I feel like I was reading FT a few months ago and several of the major Ibanks were saying they expect to need a third as many employees in the next decade. **Taipei is a prime example. Taiwanese salaries are super low, yet property is super expensive. Last time I looked, around $100/sqft for condos. People buying investment properties are the obvious culprit, but I don't think there is political will to deprive the government of property taxes and wipe out the savings of older voters, in order to save the young. And lo and behold the birthrate is 0.9 there. ***I think this was on HN a few days ago: https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-mass-disappearance-of-men-from-college/ https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-.... You can argue college is a waste of time, and I'm inclined to agree, but I think we can make up a narrative where young men feel there is no hope.
mikem170 6y ago
There's other possible possible confounding factors, like the rise of mass media and the internet, leaving the gold standard and the growth of the finance, increased beaucratization and corporatization of everything, etc. Hard to know sometimes how all this stuff is related. But I think it is valid that the parent pointed out that younger generations today feel screwed, that they won't be able to do as well economically or socially as their parents. Many are lonely on the internet, trapped in student loans, and searching for decent jobs. On average they are having to postpone leaving their parents houses, getting married, having kids and buying a house, waiting to do these things until significantly later in life than their parents and grandparents. They've heard about the American Dream and don't feel like they'll have it. And there's a lot of them. I know that this is not true for everybody, lots of things are better, and it's relative - other people have it worse, etc. But this sentiment is still a thing - a lot of young people feel like they have it worse than their parents and grandparents. I don't know that debating the details will change their minds.

watwut 6y ago

Women entering workforce did raised standard for a lot of them. The domestic violence and abuse rates against women are down by a lot. And yes, they go up and down with female employment too, employment affects how she can manage her status in family, how much is husband resentful over her being at home and crucially, how much she is locked. (I don't know male abuse stats and the whole topic is less talked about) > opioid epidemic, obesity epidemic Alcohol consumption is down against 1971. The heroin, cocain etc problems are smaller then they used to be. People are less violent overall. People still live longer. And while they are obese, their life expectancy went up against that time. And some of it is that historical diseases from various malnutritions are down. Economic standards are dropping for new graduates. But, it is not all bleak everything is worst situation.