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Under every boom, real change grinds away. Markets reach maturity when there's no more room for development and instead there is only room for replacement. Un
by ChuckFrank 15y ago
Under every boom, real change grinds away. Markets reach maturity when there's no more room for development and instead there is only room for replacement. Until that point where new business only replaces exiting business, people either unable or unwilling to critically evaluate the quality and magnitude of change keep running in and out of the markets leading to the recurring booms and busts. Instead think of the public introductions of electricity at the Chicago Worlds Fair in 1893, which is comparable to the release of Mosaic 100 years later. Compared to electricity, we are in 1911, and realize all the things that still haven't been invented yet. Neither television, nor the internet itself had been invented. So while the booms and busts might swirl around any developing technology, it's vital to remember the key question is not "is it a bubble?" instead it is "where am I going?" & "where are we going?" In short Vision > Bubble. Now, since the real estate market is still slumbering, domestic manufacturing continues it's long decline, the financial markets have lost their public trustworthiness, the media will naturally follow what they think the hottest emerging segments are --> Bio Tech, Green Tech, Online Tech -- because that is their mission. So let's just promise to keep in mind that any report with the words boom, bust, bubble in them are not about the vision, or about the real changes that the technology actually brings. Those stories will be about the boom, bust and bubble itself. By ignoring those stories, and ignoring the related bubbles we can actually create the technological changes that we all promise in our work.